Friday, March 29, 2024

By the Numbers: Gunners crush Liverpool to improve mini-League record

Arsenal put four past Liverpool today and jumped up the League table into second place, just 4 points off putative League winners Chelsea. Chelsea have two games in hand (as I write this) but it is refreshing to see Arsenal at this point in the season in a position on the table that doesn’t rhyme with BAAAAAARF.*

Back when Arsenal were perennially struggling to make the top four, rather than challenging for the title, I was quick to dismiss the importance of the so-called “mini-League”. Points are points, I would rationalize, and it doesn’t really matter where you drop them.

But there is a knock-on effect for the fans and the players when a club is able to beat close rivals. For example, one of the main reasons David Moyes was looked at sideways as a manager was because his record against top clubs was atrocious. He continued that tradition when he took over Man U and I suspect this, plus the behind-the-scenes player revolt, ultimately led to his downfall. On the other end of the spectrum, Chelsea’s Mourinho is widely lauded for his record against top clubs — last season Chelsea had the best record in the mini-League.

top-seven

But this season, it’s actually Man U who have the best record in the mini-League and I suspect that’s a major reason why van Gaal is getting a pass on what would otherwise be seen as a poor season considering the money that they have spent on player acquisitions.

If we take out Tottenham and Southampton (because those hams aren’t perennial top-four challengers, not really) the table improves slightly for Arsenal this season:

top five

It’s interesting how quickly Liverpool drop down the table when you remove Spurs and Soton and that precipitous drop is one of the reasons I distrust mini-League analysis: it’s a small and skewed sample of a 38 game season. But no single stat tells the whole story, as I have been saying for years, to tell the whole story you must first invent the universe.

What I think that the mini-League illustrates is a sort of fan sentiment toward a manager and a club. The more your team wins against other top clubs, the more your fans, players, and press tend to respect the manager and think the season is going well.

top five last year
head-to-head record for these teams from 2013-2014

As you can see, the head-to-head for last season between this season’s top five (Man U didn’t finish top five last year) had Arsenal putting up an abyssal -12 GD and winning just 1 match while earning just 0.75 PPG. Arsenal have a positive goal difference this year (+2) and have already earned more points than last season, with two matches left to play. Of course, those two matches are against the top two teams in the mini-League but hey, Arsenal already beat van Gaal United at Old Fergie in the FA Cup, so why not dream about doing a “double”?

Another interesting fact is that Arsenal are the only team that is undefeated against “bottom half” teams this season. The Gunners have P16 W13 D3 L0 and earned 2.62PPG and a +25 GD. The only team with a better GD is City with +26. And City have played one more match against bottom half opposition.

(All stats and graphics from statto.com)

With Ozil, without Ozil

Of my readers asked if I could compare Arsenal’s passing stats when they have Özil and when they don’t. Well, it just so happens that I can! I looked at the last 10 games (Premier League and Champions League) with Özil and the previous 10 without Özil and there is an appreciable difference in the way that Arsenal play.

Ozil-with-without

As you can see, when Arsenal don’t have Özil in the team they are less “passy”, camp less in the opposition final third, and more reliant on offensive efficiency (conv%). But what’s weird is that the goals for numbers are basically identical.

I’m not suggesting that Arsenal are better or worse with Özil. I’m just pointing out that Arsenal pass less without Özil.

Arsenal 4-1 Liverpool – Key Stats

27 — Number of Coquelin’s 55 passes attempted which were forward, he completed 18
27 — Number of Cazorla’s 61 passes attempted which were were forward, he completed 24
1 — Coquelin completed just one long pass of the 4 he attempted, that brought his season total to 18/22 (yes, that means he was 17/18 before today, which surprised me too)
4 — Coquelin was only credited with 4/8 tackles today (led Arsenal) he’s been a 75% tackler this season
3 — Özil made 3/3 tackles today, yep. And Cazorla was 2/3, while Rambo was 2/5
6 — Emre Can was 6/8 tackling, if only he’d made that one tackle instead of trying to take Welbeck’s legs and then pretending he slipped
6 — Coquelin led all players with 6 interceptions. This was tied with Mertesacker
10 — Coquelin also had 10 ball recoveries, tied with Nacho and Santi
1 — Bellerin was a busy bee, scoring a goal
4 — he had 4/5 successful dribbles (tied with Alexis for most on Arsenal, Pounds Sterling was 6/14) one of which led to the opening goal
3 — he had 3/5 tackles (second on Arsenal)
3 — he was second on Arsenal with 3 clearances (tied with Nacho)
4 — he had 4 blocked crosses to lead all players
3 — he led all players with 3 fouls committed… it was a tough match for him to mark Sterling who was auditioning for a role at Arsenal next season. How did Sterling do? Mostly dribbly. He also led Liverpool with 4 shots, but they were all from distance.

@7amkickoff

*Barf and fourth are closer rhymes when spoken in a Geordie accent.

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CB

Coq, Ozil are both great.

Like the mini league analysis, looking like a step up for us.

DC

Forgive the interjection (we are talking about coq, yes?)

Lot of talk about Adams goal against Chelsea yesterday. The last time I can recall us scoring four against Liverpool was a long time ago (I skived off an exhibition to go to the match) and one Anders Limpar scored a cracker: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVTayts24pM&spfreload=10

kos the boss

You forgot Arshaaaaaaaaaaaavin!

TommyGun

Arshavin’s 4 in that absurd draw

GoonerN16

What a cracker, tanks for that link.

The Beast

You forgot me #sad

// Julio

Uptheguns

On to 2nd spot and the FA Cup! COYG!

My Free Kick

4 – Number of Arsenal goal scorers today. Share the love!

David C

love this, but so wish that beautiful chance that Santi put off the post went in as well. That would have been another goal of the season candidate.

I can’t help but thump my chest and scream “Who’s next?” after that great team performance. Remember when people were saying we were a one-man team? Silly people.

Girozil

Remember when people were saying #WengerOut 6-7 months ago? Wonder what they’re saying now.

Primislas

Wenger out? What exactly changed? Are you going to swallow “Arsenal can compete next season” baloney yet again?

2 bullets in the chamber

I thought the Sterling deal was just media rumors…what’s going on?

ARiddlingName

He gave an interview in which he basically said he doesn’t want to stay at Liverpool and he was flattered by Arsenal interest. Although I think he is a good player (jokes aside), I think that even if Liverpool would somehow end up selling him to us, the price tag would be rather high. And of course there is the obvious worry that if he’s jumping ship from Liverpool, who’s to say he won’t do the same if Madrid or Barca come knocking on the door in the future? And of course, there is the possibility that he might just… Read more »

alexis' shorts

By any sensible standards, he said nothing about wanting to leave Liverpool. That’s just media going crazy with speculation. A player being flattered that other top teams are interested is not wrong, but the insinuation is that saying so shows a lack of respect for your current club. I think Sterling’s learned it’s better to just keep your mouth shut, unless you’re Zlatan. Also though, for those involved in the game as professionals, it has to be treated as a business first and foremost. I don’t like that truth, but seeing how it’s their job, they deserve to maximize their… Read more »

CB

He went on the BBC unauthorised. He didn’t have to look money driven but most of us don’t have the chance to turn down £100k contracts.

Big gap between him and the common fan. He deserves whatever he gets from public opinion, shouldn’t have gone on TV.

GoonerN16

I liked him last season and even up until recently. However, all the attention and hype has gone to his head and he reminds me of a certain Cashley Hole…. Trouble…
Besides he was shite yesterday, compared to our boys. Hats of to our Hector, he kept him well in place and what a goal to boot! Hector MOTM for me although very stiff competition for that accolade what with the whole team performance yesterday. COYG!!!!
What a joy to watch, watch out Moanrineio…….. be afraid, very afraid,,,,,

DR

However, if his career stalls due to bad decision making then he might end up earning less than if he was smarter about things. For example, if Sinclair ends up at a club like Villa earning 40k for the next 3 years, then he might earn less than he had sticking with Swansea and getting an increase then moving to somewhere like Spurs where he’d get game time as well as a decent chunk. It shows a prioritisation of immediate wealth and an egotistical demand for recognition, rather than being smart and working to improve like some other young Englishmen,… Read more »

GoonerN16

Spot on. The Ox has improved exponentially this season and was on a roll before his unfortunate injury, he has bags of potential and reads the game really well.
Plus I’d rather have the Ox’s attitude both on and off the pitch (and the dressing room), he is a true team player. Whereas, Sterlings’ ego could well get in his (own) way. Maybe he should go the Chels$i, should fit right in there?

CB

Not sure he is racist enough…

Ali

If sterling joins us, helps the the team to win trophys, and then decide to join one of the Spanish giants, I would not mind it at all.

Win win is fun!

Nigerian

We don’t need another player who doesn’t want to sign da tin. Theo is enough.

David C

I don’t think Sterling gets into our starting 11. Plus, he’s only 20 and acting a like a d**k.

ManURE will probably spend 30 million on him and sign him to 250,000 pounds a week. Sterling will be on the Luke Shaw diet and gain about 20 pounds before next season where LVG will use him as a wing-back or something stupid.

DFS

There’s a farcical take on Sterling but I am not sure it’s quite all his own fault. Brenda bigged him up relentlessly and he got the European Young player award last year. Heres a cold stat that gives perspective. Last year was his breakout year that drew all the acclaim. Yet Danny Welbeck’s stats are almost identical with the season yet to end and without him hitting on all cylinders (and better if you count his England return). Sterling is a talent but surplus to requirements at Arsenal. Perhaps the most humerous thing after the weekend was Sterlings value, which… Read more »

Oluwamayowa

Le Coq stats keeps me wondering all day long…..
Like How does he do it? Make it look simple throwing those sliding tackles around, until I tried replicating such in our Sunday league football.
well, I’m still three weeks out, minus rehabilitation. **sobs**

MB

I can replicate it, it’s all about positioning and timing of tackle or interception. Study the ball’s movement and the opponent’s feet. Also be aware of other players position think about where you want the ball to move after when you get/nick the ball

Witoldo

4:45 am kickoff today?

Someone's Something

– “Please sign me”
– “There there…”

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBwGmq3W4AAq0ws.jpg

Ancient Gooner

Good one 🙂

jonnycakes82

I was wondering what Can and Henderson were pointing at! Oh he slipped did he,Wankers

Woolwich Peripatetic

It’s somewhat of a Liverpool tradition.
Apparently Liverpool weren’t knocked off their perch by United, they just slipped…

GoonerN16

Perhaps Rooney et all were teaching him their diving techniques?

kaius

Love the analyses on the mini-table and how it affects the rep of managers, very revealing.

Following the Fri Arsecast discussion with Amy Lawrence about the Emirates feeling more like home for us this season, it reminds me of the period when we played UCL games at Wembley. Great conceptually but it brought horrible results – it seemed the opposition felt just as “at home” as we did, and I feel there’s been a little of that in these early years at the Emirates. Today and the upcoming Chelsea game will go a long way to redefining that dynamic.

GoonerN16

Maybe we a growing into our new stadium..?

DFS

I think this season has been a turning point. Its always a difficult transition, for a team to leave somewhere so intimate as Highbury (or equilvalent) for a modern stadium. But it feels like there is a definitive swagger and a pride that comes with such a run of recent wins, and of course the intimidation factor starts to rise for visiting teams. It was interesting also to note the pregame and in game coverage this weekend which featured an inordinate amount of aerial footage with commentators noting it was now one of the outstanding grounds in the football. I… Read more »

GU1TAR-D3MON

Thought Le Coq was excellent today. Sniffed out so many attacks. It just amazes me how much of a difference he has made, won’t win much plaudits because the goal scorers take most of the glory but as a former defender (ahh do I miss those days!) who loved defending seeing him slide everywhere and just see the play and be able to snuff it out gives me a semi hard on

No pun intended

RoyKeane's Beard

And the yellow cards aren’t as frequent as before!

meletios

Alexis looks like he has gained muscle…or is it just my

meh as fuck

Amazing how much more fun these things are to look at when we’re on the right end of a 4-1 drubbing.

meh as fuck

Nice work as ever 7am.

Finnish Hit

Just what I was going to write. Thanks.

FriscoGooner

Dang, 5 am start comes a bit early here in SF, but worth it to see this on fire Arsenal team give those western clowns what they deserve.You heard it here first : the Chelsea game is going to be one we will talk about for years to come.COYG!

mfp88

Arsenal, we’re looking like a real Arsenal with so much ‘weaponry’ in the team. Somebody oughta do the etymology of the word Arsenal, might just find some North London team has a lot to do with it.

horlarmy

up up up gunners

Ciderman

I’d live to see the Arsenal fans produce a weekly “greater than Owen” flag… starting with: Henry > Owen lol then work its way to: Cygan > Owen

Alexstratz

pie > * > fly > sh*t > Owen

Gooners & Roses

eh, MU is top on the mini league? To think we have the chances this season and the past to win against them… Let’s get it right like the FA cup win!

Abdel Abdellater

7amkickoff, in the past, has credited some of his stats to WhoScored.com. According to WhoScored.com, Coquelin against Liverpool had 32 forward passes (not 27 as reported by 7amkickoff), of which 13 had the final third of the pitch as their target zone, 16 had the mid-third zone as their target, and 3 had the defensive third as their target zone. Coquelin had more forward passes with the final third as the target zone than did Giroud, Bellerin or Ramsey (albeit Ramsey was substituted at minute 62). Arsenal have been scoring more goals per game since Coquelin joined the team. This… Read more »

Mark

Our recent run of form I feel is directly related to Ozil being back in the squad. Just imagine where we could be in the table if Ozil and Giroud hadn’t missed so much time. We very well may be in 2nd place tomorrow night and with the time such key players have missed (Koscielny too) that is really amazing. Just saw Spuds tied today so we now are now points clear of 5th place with 7 games to go so can lose 3 games and still be in the top 4 no matter what the other teams do. Of… Read more »

CB

Remember goal difference too, we have vastly better goal difference so they will have to get 10 points more than us in 7 games to be in front of us.

Not going to happen.

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