Friday, March 29, 2024

Arsenal 0-0 Southampton: Pressing and Big Chances, By the Numbers

21- Shots Arsenal took in the entire almost 90 minutes of football
3 – Shots Arsenal took in the first half
10 – Key Passes Ozil made in the entire almost 90 minutes of football
0 – Key passes Ozil made in the first half
4 – Key passes Alexis made
2 – Key passes Alexis made in the first half
21 – Tackles Southampton made in the first half (of 25 attempted) — they finished the game with 45¹
21 – Interceptions Southampton made in the first half — they finished the game with 31
23 – Times that Arsenal lost possession in the first half in addition to the tackles and the interceptions — they finished the game with 42
19 – Tackles that Southampton average per game this season
19 – Interceptions that Southampton average per game this season
28 – Arsenal’s Average possession lost (combined dispossessed and bad touch) per game this season
110 – Percent chance that I’m telling you that teams have figured out Arsenal aren’t as good at possession football as they once were (right now, maybe) and that as a result those teams have taken to pressing Arsenal and Arsenal can’t handle the press. Even Burnley did it to Arsenal, as I wrote in my last column, they effectively doubled their tackles and interceptions output. I suspect it’s because without Santi Cazorla there is no one in midfield to carry possession out of the back but I’ll leave that analysis to others.
10 – Extra percent added to that last stat for emphasis
21 – The good news is that you go back to the 21 shots Arsenal took yesterday; that’s twice what Arsenal averaged (10.4) per game during the period Alexis was injured, and the 5 Big Chances Arsenal created were more than double what Arsenal have averaged (2.125) during the period where Alexis was injured, but incredibly Arsenal have also just gone three straight matches without a goal. Why? …

657 – Minutes since Theo Walcott last scored a goal (33′ v. Man City Dec. 21, 2015)
15 – Shots Walcott has taken in those 657 minutes
7 – Shots on target by Walcott in those 657 minutes
3 – Big Chances Walcott has got in those 657 minutes
12 – Big Chances Walcott has had this season
2 – Big Chances Walcott has scored this season
17 – Percent of his Big Chances Walcott is converting (2/12)
47 – Percent of his Big Chances that Giroud is converting (7/15)
40 – Percent of his Big Chances that Alexis is converting (4/10)
25 – Percent of his Big Chances that Özil is converting (2/8)
2 – Number of Big Chances Ozil had saved versus Southampton yesterday
4 – Total number of Big Chances Foster saved against Arsenal yesterday
69 – Big Chances Arsenal have created this season
23 – Big Chances Arsenal have scored this season
33 – Big Chance conversion rate for Arsenal
20 – Percent of Big Chances that Walcott and Özil have converted this season (4/20)
29 – Percent of Arsenal’s big Chances that have been taken by Walcott and Özil

What Arsenal’s conversion rate looks like compared to other teams:

Big-chances-through-match-24

(Leicester converting 48%, Spurs 50%, Man City 40% — if Arsenal converted even at Man City’s 40% rate, they would have scored 5 more goals than they have. If they converted at 50% it’s 11 more goals.)

If you want to take away a positive it is that despite huge pressure Arsenal are back to creating a lot of good chances. If you want to take away a negative from this game (you’re spoiled for choice!) you could choose Arsenal’s conversion rate or the fact that they can’t handle the press. Don’t choose both, it’s not healthy.

@7amkickoff

Sources: 442 Stats Zone App, WhoScored.com, my personal database

Qq

¹Alexis lost possession 9 times, Ozil 8, Giroud 7, Ramsey 5, Campbell 4, Walcott 3, Bellerin and Monreal 2, and Flamini and Koscielny 1

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Bergkamp's elbows

Confidence beats the press.

Nick

Guys, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I was looking at the table today. Not only have we scored less goals this season than Leicester, Man City, and Spurs, but we have also scored less goals than West Ham. I repeat, West Ham.

I’m no stats guru. But that is not good.

H

You could also say Arsenal have conceded less goals than every team in the top half of the table except for Sp*rs and Man Utd.

I’m no stats guru but you can definitely use them say whatever you want.

Nick

@H.
So with our combined analysis, we have:
Arsenal really need to score more goals, and need to continue not letting in many goals.

I think we should combine forces, mate. We could really be on to something here.

Trez

Yet they tell us only Aguero is superior to Giroud in the league. Our strike force is weak even though Giroud has greatly improved this season.

Pete

No he hasn’t. Still has to score 3 goals in the next six games to improve on last season’s ratio.

Siserio

These players needs new rules added to their contracts.Win;they’ll get their weekly wages (according to their contracts).Draw;they’ll get half.loose;nothing.That way,we’ll know if they are really passionate about the badge or if they’ll go elsewhere,where their inconsistencies will be rewarded.

Paul

It may hinder recruitment….

Mark

We are averaging our fewest goals per match in at least a decade (if not longer).

H

Would kill for a fit Wilshere to carry the ball in the middle right now.

Matt

Jack Wheelchair? Please, sell him along with useless Walcott….

Yorkshire Gunner

Classless comment.

Dawn

spoken like a true goon!

Gooner1886

At the end of last season we went a couple of games without scoring and now we see a repeat, in my eyes the reason is because we lack top quality in the final third. Alexis aside, our front 3 is not great and our goal scoring record shows that… Joel Campbell and the ox could possibly develop into world class players (unlikely) but the likes of Walcott and giroud have had enough time and chances to show they are consistently up to the job and failed. Please mr wenger spend the money on a cf and a winger in… Read more »

Possession

We may have to pay over the current rate in terms of salary and transfer fee to acquire the two players needed up top to create an awesome front four and it may not sit well with Arsene but Walcott could be sold to help finance it.
With his wages off the bill plus Arteta ,Flamini and poor old Rosicky surely we can afford it.

Chimichanga Monreal (cuz that's way more fun to say)

It will be very difficult to move Walcott along with his wage requirements. I think we are stuck with him since he signed da ting.

Thisisme

It’s interesting that teams have already worked out Arsenal’s (new) weakness since the Santi injury, but they don’t appear to have worked out Leicesters over half a season plus.

Tim

That’s because Leicester’s weakness is having the ball. If you concede possession to them and invite them to attack they can’t generate the one-on-one chances that they thrive on. But how do you force a team who doesn’t want the ball to take the ball?

It’s harder than you think. Wenger did it once against West Ham. That’s the last time I remember a top team forcing a team who hate possession to take possession. If I remember I think we just sat insanely deep and hoofed a ton of clearances.

BTW: Arsenal won that match against West Ham.

Tim Geschwindt

I tried to figure out what the issue is at the moment.. But realised we have issues in three departments. We became fantastic at defending, but that knowledge has been thrown out of the window. I assume it’s Le Coq’s absence. Koscielny typifies the new mistake-riddled back line. He’s gone from Mr Reliable, to fucking up at least twice a game. Our midfield has no individual with the capability to turn over possession. Ramsey and Flamini simply don’t do that job, so our possession has become an issue. We did so well a year ago against City when Cazorla would… Read more »

Bergkamp's elbows

I agree with almost all of that and it is worrying. But it seems a mental thing that can click into place after one big victory… Barcelona maybe? 😉
I also think Giroud’s movement is pretty good considering the amount of effort he puts in while being fouled and groped all game. He is so often a major part in our team goals.

Matt

We beat Bayern not so long ago….

Bergkamp's elbows

And then sat in the top two until this very recent dip. We know how good these lads can be when their heads are in the right place, one incident can change everything.

Pete

Yeah, and lost 5-1 to them 2 weeks later.

Arun

When we had no pace on the break!
No Theo, No Ox, No Bellerin and Kos was not fit.

Competing with Bayern on a full strength is a battle. Competing with half the team out which managed to beat Bayern, especially with “PACE” being our main weapon blunted is totally a different story!

So, give the lads a break…We did beat them at home, not many have managed to even get a draw.

Martyn Brown

I think we’ve blown it for another season. Horrible form in the past 4 games. Complete bottle job. I’m sure Ozil and Sanchez will be wondering if this is the right place for them. We may not even get 4th place.

Joblow

Well maybe if Ozil was more clinical he would not be wondering if he is in the right place. Sanchez on the other hand may think so though!

Dawn

Sanchez can’t complain either! He’s had a long rest, whilst the others have played week in week out! Look at the impact Giroud had when he came back from injury! Anyway Im not going to knock our lads! I love them with or without trophies!

chopra_gooner

Ramsey so much wanted play in the middle and has been given enough chances, he’s not good enough technically and discipline wise. He is selfish in the sense he always wants to score goals. I doubt if he listens to instructions from Wenger. He’s not world class, sell him to Barca for 30mill in the summer.

I’d play a 35 year old fit Rosicky over Ramsey in the CM anyday.

Elneny and Coq should be given a chance together, maybe they’re more compatible.

Please God give us Cazorla back very very soon.

Cape Town Gooner

I wonder if Wenger make these guys to relook at the game to see where they need to improve. It does not look like that. Golden boys such as Theo and Ramsey make same mistakes game after game. Arsene’s faith is hurting the team’s chances of winning the championship. However I have not lost faith that we can still do it.

Tarquin Farquar

Very interesting that lots of thumbs up for your very accurate comment. maybe the collective denial about Ramsey and all that Welsh Jesus shite has been laid to rest. A very average player. Even in the year he created the myth, he was absolutely dreadful in some of those games and got the winner in the last min and all you could hear was he had done it again, it’s incredible bla bla bla. Never good enough.

Stewart Robson's therapist

Utterly revisionist garbage.

Mpls

TF, I’ll give you the ‘goodwill’ reply: No collective anything has done anything. What you’re seeing is what I refer to as the Tide. When results are going well, sadly, that’s the Ebb tide. Numbers of comments go down, and they are mostly – as Is expected when all goes well – positive and congenial. Discussions about this and that, for sure, but not bash parties. Then a result we don’t like happens. The Tide of anger and finger pointing and saying rude shit about the team, manager, and players comes in. Those who don’t post when things are good… Read more »

Same old Arsenal, always winning

Considering my username and the fact that your comment alone encouraged me to say something after that last game, I would suggest that you might be on to something.

Mpls

Cheers. I get as frustrated as anyone else, but see nothing wrong in supporting and believing that this is a great club that has a real shot at the top in a year that nobody can feel comfortable.

Stewart Robson's therapist

Blimey, we draw a blank in our last three games and Arsenal fans are slamming a player for trying to score goals. You couldn’t make it up.

Dawn

How easy is it to sell a classless, selfish, undisciplined technophobic footballer to barca for £30m?

Fabulous

Teams above us all have strikers who can make a difference when their team is struggling; Kane, Aguero and Vardy. Having said that there is very little point talking about that now as the window is closed without us addressing the CF position (again after the debacle in the summer). Giroud and Walcott, though probably not the ones we want, are the ones we actually have and they’re actually not piss poor. Wenger better find a solution to get goals out of the two until the end of the season. And until then we should do our part as fans… Read more »

sam

We’re in desperate need of a striker to make the difference in games like yesterday, someone who can create something out of nothing, yes Girouds good but it’s been 4 years and although it’s been his best year I still would like world class material. As much as I hate to say it we had that with Van Persie, I’ll always remember being 4-3 up at the bridge and him running up the left flank and smashing top left to finish them off. You can’t blame Arsene there wasn’t any top strikers around in Jan but he knows it’s time… Read more »

Fabulous

There are plenty of class strikers out there, even if Wenger buys this summer the real regret is he should’ve bought the striker the previous summer, which has always been the story with Wenger. Always lagging behind in the transfer window. It’s hard to see Chelsea continuing being shit next season, Pep is already at City, which may cause United to panic the shit out of their arse and appoint Mourinho, even Spurs look good under Poch. And at the beginning of next season we’ll have the Euros players still recovering from fatigue, aka Ozil last season, weird thing is… Read more »

JW

Worse than the fact that Arsenal are not good at controlling the ball is the fact that Arsenal rarely control space now. And against the teams at their level, they can rarely control the game. Great as Cazorla and Coquelin are, relying on Cazorla, masterful dribbler that he is, to break a press through dribbling isn’t something that is viable in the long-term; or perhaps even in the short-term since the rest of the team now has no idea how to overcome a press without Cazorla dribbling through it. And a major factor as to why Coquelin-Cazorla worked well is… Read more »

Tim

Yep. All of this.

I’m just shocked at how Arsenal went from one of the best passing teams in the world to a team which can’t control possession. But your point about not controlling space out of possession is exactly correct. It’s not something that shows up well in the stats, unless you see the team winning possession back a lot, like Burnley and Southampton have now done in their matches.

Alexstratz

Well if tactics and team philosophy don’t change, then there are only 11 reasons.

Alexstratz

We don’t score enough with the number of chances we create. It’s hardly news now. It has been the case for 4 seasons.

Sgt Slaughter

Ohhhh Santiiii Cazooorlaaa, Ohhh Santiii Cazooorlaa

Pete

Cazorla Cazorla. Did we compete for the title or CL with him? No.

He’s also 31, not scored a single goal this season and provides zero defensive cover. Talented lad but never the right solution and his best days are definitely behind him.

Mpls

OK Pete, give me your solution.
You’ve got nothing positive to say about a single player in the club that I’ve seen.

Let’s hear it, mate.

Man Manny

78 to 82 – likely points total that will be needed to win the league this year.

Poon

Ozil should have taken Santi’s spot deep when he got injured. Ozil doesn’t score and he does actually put in a shift. Certainly can’t say swapping Santi for Ozil weakens us physically. We could have let Ramsey do what he does anyway with Ozil to link play and move the ball forward under pressure. We miss Wilshere here to, the other natural Santi replacement. If Coq could only play one of the last 2 games, why not give him 20/30 mins in the cup and a start yesterday instead? Reckon Campbell sits for a bit now. Gone off the boil… Read more »

Me So Hornsey

Ox needs a try out next to Coq. He’s the only fit player with any dribbling skills comparable to Cazorla.

Ramsey shoved out right like in our good early season formation. Coq and Ox in the middle.

Cox.

Bergkamp's elbows

Cox is a nice idea but I fear the Ox is too likely to give the ball away in dangerous positions back there, and doesn’t have santi (or arteta’s) canny and hugely important ability to draw the foul when under pressure. Maybe Cox in a couple of years?

Bergkamp's elbows

I’d like to see Ramsey back on the right, the Coq and El-neney as an all action high energy midfield.

El-Coqney!

Me So Hornsey

I like. Even if for the euphemism itself

Mpls

Hopefully Elneny comes on line soon and adapts well. His pass and move tempo, even though it was against a Championship opponent, seemed to help with possession and controlling the midfield. He was showing for passes, the way we’re not getting from Flamini and Ramsey enough, especially in the back and middle 1/3s. To my eyes, Ramsey really starts to show for passes at the center line and in the opponents’ half. The rest of the team seems to run away from the ball in the middle hoping for that ‘killer pass’. Elneny seemed (in the micro sample) to show… Read more »

Zyrth

Fat thumbs. Sorry for the incorrect down vote.

Fully agree with what you said about how Elneny looked and his adjudged characteristics. That’s gonna be useful as he will provide the boring work which is linking defense to Attack, a job of a CM. As much as I love Ramsey, he irritates the hell out of me right now with his petulant disregard of his position’s roles and responsibilities. Though it must be said, the b2b role tends to be harder to grasp. Just look at how Yaya toure is as liable as Ramsey in CM.

AntiSpud

Football bloody hurts. Can’t look at the bloody table! Spuds above? How peculiar. Can’t wait for next games to rectify this. Until then, it’s football quarantine for antispud

Ilham

For me the biggest problem of Arsenal right now is Ramsey. I can’t understand his role on the pitch. He is pretty slow and not enough technical but very selfish in front of goal. He looks sometimes foggy. And his reading of the game is pretty poor. Can’t believe that Barcelona wants him. I think selling him would be good decision.

Pete

Biggest problem is whatever the fuck Wenger has him doing in training. Either he’s a moron that’s learned nothing, in which case he should be ditched, or he’s doing exactly what he’s being asked of him by the tactical idiot in charge.

Jamie Vardinho

Very off-topic but can someone tell me the logic of loaning out Debuchy with no cover?? Chambers can play cover at Right Back, but that means we are one short at Centre Back with only Mert, Kos and Gabriel. It’s simple logic to have two players for every position to rest/give opportunities/ and in case of injuries. I remember before we got Gabriel last Jan we had only 2 specialist CB’s in Mert/Kos playing damn near every game- idiot logic right there. Unless Wenger believes one of the U-21’s can step up? Considering we had an empty space with Debuchy… Read more »

Jamie Vardinho

thumbs down but no-ones given me a valid reason, shit even a Djilobodji type player would’ve sufficed

Mpls

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say it just might have something to do with the name your using in combination with criticizing the club. Looks suspiciously trollish.

If you’re an Arsenal supporter you may want to reconsider the name you’re using.

Jamie Vardinho

To be honest with you I couldn’t think of a better name and if fans have a problem with me using a Leicester player’s name as my user that’s their problem.

And I must be a very in-depth troll to be looking Arsenals squad in such detail, a “Wenger out” post would’ve sufficed.

I think there are alot of great things about Wenger but playing RB/LB’s at the CB position pre-Gabriel wasn’t one of them.

Mpls

Well, you might think it ‘their problem’ and I really think you should do as you like of course, but if you’re wondering why you’re getting down votes without explanation that username is going to be a big part of it. It was nothing more than a helpful tip.

I also question the Debuchy decision, but figure there’s squad chemistry issues and aside from that our biggest problem right now is not scoring more goals than our opponents. Or any goals at all.

Paul

We have enough cover and nobody want’s a grumpy pants in the squad?…

Jamie Vardinho

I agree on the grumpy pants part at least 🙂

Bergkamp's elbows

Wenger knows it is more of a risk to keep a disruptive figure around the squad. We also have Monreal who could fill in at CB if needed and Gibbs has done quite well at LB when put back in there.

And yes you should reconsider your name if you are in fact an arsenal fan, and you should reconsider your tone if you’d prefer not to come across troll like.

Jamie Vardinho

I wasn’t disputing the disruptive figure part I was disputing the adequate cover part in a relatively injury prone squad. We also have Monreal who could fill in at CB if needed and Gibbs has done quite well at LB when put back in there. I don’t want to rehash what I’ve already said but that the above logic is fundamentally flawed and I really don’t see Chambers, as much as I like the guy, putting in a decent shift at Right Back. Putting Monreal at CB despite Gibbs being a good option would mean more concern on the defensive… Read more »

stefangunner

We’ve seen that Aaron isn’t player who can drop deep and start attacks.I would try with Arteta-Coq midfield,Ramsey on right flank and Walcott as striker.It would be closest to our first XI.Ramsey as winger would provide smart usage of ball from that side,as well as defensive help for Arteta and Bellerin,he would also bring the best from Bellerin’s runs.We shouldn’t forget his quality and moving in final third. I would also give Theo a go as striker.Giroud needs rest and although Theo’s been playing purly for some time,he did well as striker at start of season,combinig well with Ozil and… Read more »

Jamie Vardinho

Good call on Arteta in the middle and Ramsey on the right although I’m concerned Arteta is a bit rusty, although I’m sure he’s getting some U-21 minutes.

Real classy, decent guy too, seems down to earth.

Got to respect the hair too!

craig

Wait, we had 65% possession, we created four big chances ( roughly 8% of what each of our rivals have created over the whole season, we created in one match), Ozil had the most chances created of any player in the League this season, and their GK was the unanimous man of the match. Additionally, pretty much everyone agrees the ref let them get away with murder in terms of not calling and/or carding their fouls, but buying their dives and calling and carding our players for fouls. Oh yeah, and Giroud had his shirt ripped wide open in the… Read more »

Mpls

-cheers-
That’s the way I saw it too.
Unhappy we dropped points, but as Koeman said directly they’re pleased as pie to be fortunate enough to get a point out of that match.

Rectum_Spectrum

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Samunosuke

So basically, we’re fucked against Barca.

Paul

“Don’t choose both, it’s not healthy.” Classic! 🙂

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