Thursday, August 11, 2022

Everton 2-5 Arsenal: By the Numbers

(All expected goals numbers are my own formula)

2.34 – Expected goals for Arsenal at half time
3 – Big Chances created for Arsenal by half time
4.63 – Expected goals for Arsenal at full time
6 – Big chances created by Arsenal at full time
0.23 – Expected goals for Everton at half time
0.03 – Percent chance that Rooney shot had of going in
0.99 – Expected goals for Everton at full time
0.50 – Number of expected goals I assigned to that Niasse shot
29.41 – Expected goals for Man City (best in the League)
21.81 – Expected goals for Arsenal (second best in the League)
5 – Number of goals Arsenal are underperforming by (all of them in away games)
13.18 – Expected goals allowed by Liverpool this season (12th worst in the League)
16 – Actual goals allowed by Liverpool this season (5th worst in the League)
18.54 – Expected goals against for the worst defense in the League, Stoke City
6.72 – Expected goals against for the best defence in the League, Man City
11.82 – Expected goals against for Arsenal, the 5th best defense in the League
12 – Actual goals allowed by Arsenal

1500 – Goals Arsenal have scored in the Premier League under Arsene Wenger
100 – Goals Arsenal have scored against Everton in the Premier League (Everton is the team Arsenal have scored the most goals against)
51 – Matches Arsenal have played against Everton in the Premier League
55 – Goal difference in favor of Arsenal in those 51 matches (largest goal difference between Arsenal and any other team)
80 – Goals Arsenal have scored against Tottenham (3rd most, can you guess who the second most is with 85 against?)
19 – Goal difference in favor of Arsenal against Tottenham

Versus Everton today

Ozil – record 8 key passes, 6 key passes in the first half, 2 Big Chances created, 89% passing, 1 shot, 1 goal, 1 assist

Alexis: 6 dribbles, 4 key passes, 1 big chance created, 7 shots, 1 goal, 1 assist, dispossessed just once (but 5 bad touches)! 

Ramsey (CDM): 7 shots, 0 interceptions, 1 tackle, 0 dribbles, 4 key passes, 1 big chance created, 1 assist (dubious assist for Alexis’ goal), 1 goal, 100 times he demanded the ball spoon fed to him

Lacazette: 0 dispossessed, 4 shots, 2 big chances, 1 goal

Monreal: 2 goals this season, 90% pass success, 72 completed passes (second behind Xhaka), 2 interceptions (led Arsenal), 3 tackles (led Arsenal), 6 clearances (2nd on Arsenal), 0 fouls

Koscielny: didn’t have much to do, solid passing though at 90%, 9/9 long balls, and led arsenal with 8 clearances – oddly had 0 tackles and 0 interceptions. 

Pickford: led Everton in passing with 35, made 9 saves, including 8 saves and 3 saves off big chances in the first half

Wilshere: 1 key pass, 1 assist, not much else he could have done! 

Kolasinac: 75% passing, led Arsenal with 3 aerial duels

Gylfi Sigurdsson: 28 passes, 1 key pass, was dribbled 2/3 times, lost possession 2 times

Vlasic: lost possession 7 times, passed the ball at a 72% rate, made just 2/4 dribbles

Xhaka: 83/99 passes, 22 passes in the final third, 0 key passes, 12/15 long passes, 0 through balls, 0/1 crosses, 2/3 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 error that led to a goal

Cech: 1/3 saves, 1 error, 3 steps he seems to have lost in the last two years

Gueye: made a tackle to win a goal but lost his team the game with his second yellow

Follow me @7amkickoff and on

Sources:,, my database


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Great attacking play that deserved many more goals..but I thought the back 3 were immense today. Mustafi doesn’t get back in, for me.


Unfortunately they are all on the wrong side of 30 :/


If 31 is the wrong side, where is the good side of 30?


It was just nice to enjoy a game for a change


Do you mean 3% chance of Rooney’s shot going in? Where 0.03 becomes maximum 1?


Yes 3%


Is that based on Rooney shots outside the box or all players?

Mexican Gunner

It’s based on all players from shots outside the box, he says it really often 😉

Canberra Gooner

All players


A bit skewed, though? Not all shots are [created] equal… The moment he was allowed that second touch, it was 80% chance of a goal there. Need more data mining 😉


So who’s the second most after Everton ? West Ham ?




Ah, someone beat me to it!

occams hatchet

“80 – Goals Arsenal have scored against Tottenham (3rd most, can you guess who the second most is with 85 against?)”



Aston Villa?


Could be a great shout. My instinct was West Ham or Newcastle, but maybe they’ve yoyo’d out of the Premier League too much



Jiminy Cricket

Wait, Gana was sent off, not Gueye

Mr Lee Morris

His name is Idris Gana Gueye…

Jiminy Cricket

Yup, my mistake fuck *facepalm*


He is Idrissa Gana Gueye..

Gudang Pelor

Lovely name, Idrissa. I like Adetunji too.

Mexican Gunner

So he’s two guys at the same time?

A different George

Like Trinidad and Tobago.

Lone Star Gunner

Not to absolve Xhaka of all responsibility, but I thought Mertesacker’s pass to him was ill advised. Xhaka was closely marked, facing his own goal, and had no obvious outlet for a pass. Seemed to me that the BFG put him in a tough position.


This. You can see Everton players rushing towards Xhaka already before Merts’ pass.


Yes. People right now are so ready to jump on the fault bandwagon. Really was an unfortunate situation but hardly Xhaka’s fault completely. I was proud to see him respond by lifting himself up and got on with it. Coygs


Am I the only one who saw that Gana’s leg made contact with Xhaka’s shin before that “tackle” ? Initially I was “oh, not another Xhaka’s stupid errors” but the replay showed he was actually hit before Gana touched the ball.

Dr Duh

Am I the only one who wanted to throat punch the announcer, who kept praising Gana’s tackle despite multiple replays strongly suggesting contact, then when the definitive slow mo showed the knee to leg trip said, “Xhaka was going down before the contact” completely ignoring the tug on his shirt should *from behind* that actually started things by pulling him off balance.

Inspektør norse

It was a foul on gx, mark clattenburg was of that opinion too. 3 of our 4 last goals against us has been a result of weak refereiing.

A different George

Everyone knows this, but we act like we don’t: almost all goals are caused by a combination of errors, none of which would necessarily be fatal individually. So poor choice for BFG to pass to Xhaka; very poor decision by Xhaka to dwell on the ball too long; poor refereeing, Gana could easily have been whistled (we’re not responsible for refereeing error, but this is the sort of close decision you cannot rely on always going your way); small error by Mertesacker to elect to stand off rather than try to charge Rooney down (small error, because it probably, but… Read more »


Thank you,it was a pure foul on him even with yellow card

Bai Blagoi

I don’t agree. No matter what the reason for the pass was, it was aimed precisely. But Granit’s first touch had the ball bounce 2 meters away from him.

Inspektør norse

Still a foul and gx still had control. Gana tackled from behind. Right through his leg.


Sure, not the best passing option BFG could have chosen. But as a midfielder you have to be able to receive passes in tight areas and not lose possession. Xhaka’s initial touch was heavy but then he could have saved himself if his movements weren’t so slow. I think Jack must get a chance in midfield with Xhaka dropping. I like Xhaka, I really think he could become a great player but he makes far too many mistakes to keep his place.


Mertesacker in the three with Legs around him is our best defender.


I don’t see how Rooney open 18 or so yards out, unmarked and given time constitutes a 0.03 per cent chance of scoring. bearing in mind that it is us, he rarely gets that kind of space with any other team, and, I’ll say it again, it is us, I would have put that more at 99.97 per cent.

Good game overall thoroughly enjoyed it! Stats overall are testimony to that performance. Great article again.

Dr Duh

You’re right it is higher than 3%, it’s 4%.
Since 2009 Rooney took 493 shots from outside the box and made 20.
He had one year where he was ‘great’ at making them, 2013 when he converted 9.5% or 6 of 63 of shots from outside the box. If you remove that one outlier year, he’s a solid 3.3%.


Nonetheless I’d still be inclined not to give him that space. And the stat was 0.03per cent, not 3. Nonetheless, my point was that we gave him too much space, those data you’ve provided do not account for this, making them completely irrelevant to the point that giving Rooney that much space outside the box is dangerous. And it was a joke about how Rooney always scores against us!


Thought that after the mistake xhaka gave one of his better performances of the season. He’s a better player with Ozil in front of him, especially Ozil in form, because he finds space or makes space for others, giving xhaka a pass to play.

But you can bet every opposition Manager is going to tell their midfield to press Granit this year.

Bai Blagoi

I personally am not impressed. 83/99 passes is visibly low, his other stats don’t shine either.

I would be very curious to see Jack in his position. Partnering with Ramsey. I know this sounds like a lot of open spaces, but I just believe that Jack will do better job with the ball distribution.


How does rooneys shot only have a 0.03% chance of going in? At home, at 0-0, from a decent finisher, in a decent position, who scored more vs us than vs anyone else?


the tackle that lead to that first Everton goal was pure foul. Please lay off of Xhaka. COYG

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