Friday, December 2, 2022

Man City get a referee bonus: By the Numbers

“Alexis Turning Over a New Leaf”

11 – Number of turnovers and times dispossessed combined for Alexis
9 – Number of bad passes by Alexis
3 – Offsides by Alexis (he was the only player offside for Arsenal)
23 – Wasted possessions by Alexis (Offsides, turnovers, dispossessed, failed dribbles, and bad passes)
9 – Number of turnovers and times dispossessed by Xhaka and Ramsey combined
11 – Bad passes by Ramsey and Xhaka combined
20 – Wasted possession by Ramsey and Xhaka combined
1 – Shot by Alexis (miss)
1 – Shot by Ramsey (combined, on target)
2 – Key passes by Alexis
2 – Key passes by Ramsey
1 – Assist by Ramsey
1 – Shot by Lacazette
1 – Awful pass by Alexis after a ridiculous attempt to dribble in his own final 1/3 which put Xhaka in trouble where he was dispossessed and which led to an offside goal for City
1 – Goals Alexis has for Arsenal this Premier League season
1 – Strong suggestion that Arsene Wenger should the fuck have sold him this summer because keeping him has not proven to be a sound decision either financially or footballistically


8 – Missed passes by Coquelin (to be fair, all his passes were probably attempted clearances)
23 – Total passes attempted by Coquelin
4 – Tackles by Coquelin
3 – Successful tackles by Coquelin
2 – Important tackles by Coquelin which stopped a counter attack
8 – Tackles by Ramsey
3 – Successful tackles by Ramsey
5 – Times Ramsey was dribbled past
1 – Time Ramsey was ball watching as de Bruyne walked past him and then scored the opening goal
2 – Times Kolasinac shoved Sterling down in the box which the referee didn’t see
1 – Shoulder-to-shoulder challenge by Monreal which the referee miraculously saw as a foul after half-time
1 – Stats blogger who wonders if the referee had a chance to see the Kolasinac fouls and decided to have a makeup call
1 – Whole team that stopped playing for an offside which, to be fair, should the fuck have been given but wasn’t and you really have to play to the whistle

“Things Ozil did today”

47 – Attempted passes
38 – Successful passes
0 – Key passes
2 – Attempted dribbles
1 – Successful dribbles
1 – Shot
0 – On target
3 – Lost possession three times
1 – Interception
2 – Fouls committed
1 – Time he got really angry at the end of the game to show how much pashin he has for the club
1 – Strong suggestion that Arsenal should have sold Ozil this summer because keeping him has also not worked out for the club financially or footballistically

“Years Aaron Ramsey has left on his contract”

2 – Years Aaron Ramsey has left on his contract
3 – Goals Ramsey has in the Premier League for Arsenal this season
3 – Assists Ramsey has in the Premier League for Arsenal this season

“Fun with expected goals: or how I learned to stop worrying and love the referees”

4 – Shots by City in the first half
4 – Shots by Arsenal in the first half
2 – Shots on goal by City in the first half
1 – Shots on goal by Arsenal in the first half
0.26 – Expected goals for City in the first half (based just on the shots they got, NOT the great crosses they put in which were well defended by Arsenal)
0.26 – Expected goals for Arsenal in the first half
0 – Big Chances created by either team in the first half
1 – Fast Break shots created by each team in the first half

1.46 – Expected goals for City in the second half (includes a penalty adjustment of +0.70 xG and an offside goal which was a big chance)
1.15 – Amount of referee bonus for City in this match (adjusted for the pen)
0.31 – Expected goals for City in the second half without the referees bonus
0.13 – Expected goals for Arsenal in the second half*
2 – If you take away those two shots for the penalty and the offside goal this was a game where Arsenal kept City to a season low 7 shots (even with the referee bonus Arsenal did keep them to a season low 9 shots), where Arsenal kept them to a season low 0.57 expected goals (even Arsenal did keep them to a season low 1.46 total expected goals not adjusting for the penalty), and where a 1-1 result would have been more than fair.


*My system leans heavily on big chances and that Lacazette shots wasn’t a big chance. There are two ways you can look at this: either my system is stupid and that Lacazette chance should be counted higher, or Lacazette really beat the odds by shooting directly through the keeper’s legs from a sort of tight angle with all the other parts of the goal blocked off by defenders.


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Sheffield Gooner

0 – Hope left in me.

Donald\'s Trump

If Alexis starts the next match I’m going to sue.

Up the Arsenal

You’re going to Sue Ellen Mischke? Nice.


Really interesting!

Bai Blagoi

The stats make me even angrier


Not that I specifically want to make scapegoats of Ozil and Sanchez but, with the dung flinging contest that is their contract negotiations, their performances were particularly disappointing. They are big name players who demand big wage packets and serious competition for titles and yet, when it comes to the big game, they fail to deliver. They are meant to be players that can change the tide of a game yet were complete passengers today. Do they want to fight for the title or be carried to it, because I’m seriously sick of divas expecting the latter.


Yes, but…

Our defense is serially disorganized and mistake-prone, and our central midfield is a shambles and has been since Cazorla got injured.

Two attacking players can’t make an entire dysfunctional team functional (they could’ve both played much better today, mind).

Up the Arsenal

Still doesn’t excuse the extreme carelessness of Alexis. It was like he’s playing for City.


That’s fair, but if you give the ball away constantly like Alexis it puts unnecessary pressure on the defense. Also, it helps your defense if you can score more then once per game. Our standard this season has been either clean sheet or we’re shit. Frankly, that’s an absurd standard to have for any team.

Faisal Narrage

We just have to look a thing Spurs and know that’s in modern football, the collective is what matters the most.
Even without their best players Spurs still play well. We are quite a average team sprinkled with a couple of mavericks with the hope they do something to save us, because what’s for certain is that it isn’t our system of play that will provide results.


This +100
“We are quite a average team sprinkled with a couple of mavericks with the hope they do something to save us, because what’s for certain is that it isn’t our system of play that will provide results”


The stats guy definitely sounded angrier than usual..


Maybe we were just cheated out of it.


1 – more international break leaving us depressed for at least another two weeks.

Dominic Ighekpe

Can we exclude both Alexis and Ozil for the game against Tottenham. It’s about time Wilshere starts ahead of Ramsey


No, if Jack starts it’s ahead of Ozil.

David C

I would have sat Ozil for Iwobi yesterday. Laca up top with Iwobi and Sanchez behind. Seriously, how does Ozil expect a raise?


Ramsey has been our best player this season aside from maybe Laca when he gets to play or Kolasinac (who wasn’t very good this game).

Faisal Narrage

Ramsey has only been influencial attacking wise; making runs, getting int the box to make goals or score. He hasn’t been much influence in build up play or defensively.

It’s just firther validation that he’s an AM being forced to play as a CM.

Play him as an attacker and let’s be done with it.

Up the Arsenal

I would leave Ozil but replace Sanchez.

Michael Bolton Wanderers

I would leave ozil at home

Bould\'s Eyeliner

Actually, it’s clear that Ozil and Sanchez have no partnership. When you have two creative captains, the boat gets ripped in half. I don’t know why Wenger expects them to build an effective top half to our spine. Alexis should never get another run in the middle with Ozil as 10. You could see them disagreeing about positioning at half-time, and by end, neither were even communicating.

Have a spat, be angry, but at least talk it out ffs. This ‘team’ isn’t a team at all, and that’s the main problem.


I still believe 433 (Coquelin-Xhaka-Ramsey in midfield) is the formation we should use to get out of this crisis. F*ck Özil if he’s not happy playing on the wings. F*ck Sanchez if he’s not happy as a left winger. And f*ck whoever dares to complain on the right.

Jimbo Jones

Sense… think Ramsey, Xhaka (or Wilshere), and someone with a more defensive mentality (Coq?) about them might just compliment eachother.

I cant be fucked with Alexis anymore.

Worth noting that Ramsey has a better whoscored rating in league games than any other of our midfielders or attackers and has been involved in more goals. He’s been exposed by our system as he’s an AM not a CM


With Ramsey and Wilshere either side, Xhaka could maybe do ok in the “Pirlo” role. Maybe…Then a front 3 of Alexis-Lacazette-Iwobi/Welbeck/Walcott. Only way Ozil gets in that team is if he reinvents himself into a CM like KdB and Silva have done. I think he could do it but not under a manager that doesn’t push him to be better


Nope. What’s wrong with a front three of Ozil-Alexis-Lacazette?

Original Paul

Alexis is in it, that’s what!


I’d take Ozil over Alexis right now. At least a Ozil doesn’t dribble into a crowd and then pass it straight to the oppo for a counterattack. Alexis has no fucks left to give, and I’m mutual to him.

Jack or Iwobi in for Alexis. When does Danny get back?!

Ivan Parasite

Danny will Well be Beck after the interlul

Faisal Narrage





Nah, he’s offside.

Andy Mack

No, he’s the officials call him offside, but he rarely is.

G. Gooner

Ability to beat the press is now as important as winning the ball. The former disqualifies Coq, the latter Xhaka. Give me Jack-Rambo-Eln (not that it’s a world beater, mind).

Lord hall

I would contend we are not in crisis we are simply where we should be given current squad frailty


Totally agree about selling both Sanchez and Ozil this summer past. Bad decision being made to look more and more stupid by the week. How can you turn down 60M for a guy who will leave for nothing in 9 months and wants to leave immediately?? And Ozil for sure would have found a club if he thought his world cup place was in jeopardy. Why the fuck did Arsene not just bite the bullet and at least get some money for them?? Seriously awful management. Sackable offence innmy opinion


I believe the majority of the fans was against that. Nows it seems like it backfired but who could predict it from the summer?


This is true. 20/20 hindsight.

Up the Arsenal

Don’t think the fans would complain if we got Lemar and another winger who will play with dedication and give their all for the badge.


Lemar and Monaco confirmed that the deal was almost done and that Lemar wanted to come. It was just too late to make it happen. Maybe Lemar will join this winter when Monaco is off the Champions league then we can sell Alexis

Faisal Narrage

Fact is they aren’t the true cause.
We would’ve sold them, made all the mistakes we currently make, be shit, and then the blame would’ve been because we sold them.


I agree.

It has to be disheartening as a forward in our team when you see so many stupid defensive errors causing us to go behind.

Watch any of those teams with lol rated players – e. g. Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle – and see how organisation really can work.

If we prevent rearguard panic and errors, our forwards can get the goals.

Eric Blair

There were many people, myself included, banging exactly that particular drum in the summer for exactly those reasons. To say we couldn’t have known this was how it was going to turn out is nonsense.


Tim, I know you referenced this either in one of your By the Numbers pieces or on your own blog, but how poor has Cech been relative to other keepers this season? My inclination is that he was good in his 1st season, good enough last season, and not good enough this season. However that is a bit of an ‘eye’ test kind of deal as well as some coloring from Cech’s seeming inability to consistently stop shots from distance (which you’ve referenced many times). The first goal is always so important in these match ups and today’s goal especially… Read more »


I agree with you and it will be interesting to see. If my 2-year old took a pen against Cech, it seems smart money is on him scoring. Still can’t believe a 33-year old GK who was once world class has dived the wrong way on each of the last 12 pens he’s faced. My assessment is he always goes down first and gives the PK taker the chance to just go the other way. I believe he’s costing us points and that penalty was just one more example. Save KdB’s shot and perhaps we have a different kinda game… Read more »


I can’t be the only one who thought the Kolasinac “push” was anything but. Two players were contesting for the ball and Sterling was in front with Kolasinac behind, so it’s natural to put your hands up to stop yourself colliding with your opponent. To me there was nothing to suggest any intentional or excessive force in doing this and I certainly don’t remember Sterling making anything of it so I really doubt this was a cynical challenge. While we get the benefit of watching the replays in slow mo, the action on the pitch happens in real time and… Read more »

Cliff Bastin

In fact you’re not allowed to use your arms at all but of course lots of players get away with it. (I got yellow carded for it in a Sunday league game)

Arse City Blues

Still playing Sunday league, Cliff? Thought you’d have hung up the boots by now. Good on ya, me old mucker.


Agree. Especially as the ball had passed sterling and both players knew he was not getting there, so needed to put breaks on. One way of putting breaks is by falling and that’s why sterling did not “claim” that as a penalty. Maybe that incident made him think of “claiming” the next time an arsenal player came close in the box.


I think that even Arsene must have worked out you don’t use players that are not committed after this and the Ox. If Ozil & Sanchez are committed that would be even worse, because it would expose them as poor players.


At 2-1,the gunners still had a chance but were killed by the off side bias.Overall the gunners were a distant 2nd but what if the goal was disallowed?
This aint the first the match officials have blundered. In such a game of high stakes its vital the match officials get it right. You never know some of these guys have unwittingly helped teams to win trophies or avoid relegation.


the usual rubbish Ramsey. “but he won two FA cups for us” can we pay him off and fck him off?


Wish I could upvote this more.




Sell now else he’ll be running his contract down – But who would buy him! I think most EPL Managers have more sense

Man Manny

Keeping back Ozil and Alexis, albeit with the benefit of hindsight, is turning out to be a very poor decision. The rebuilding should have started in the summer. We were “robbed” at Etihad no doubt, but generally, a team that lost to Stoke, got turned over by Liverpoo, lost to Watford from a goal up, has deeper issues than dodgy officiating. Arsene has stubbornly got into successive seasons with a team shorn of good players in key positions; has kept faith with players who shouldn’t be found in teams with our ambitions, and has shown a worrying lack of ruthlessness… Read more »


Illuminating as usual. The horrible game Sanchez had though prevented me from seeing anything else. It’s like late period Arshavin without the beer gut.


1000- amount of times Alexis hasn’t passed to Ramsey when he is free… seriously its starting to piss me off 🙁


Their hatred for each other is very evident on the pitch. I don’t think they respect eachother’s way of playing.

Faisal Narrage

Ironic in that they’re both very similar.


It should be the other way round. Ramsey got into so many positions in which he could’ve passed to Alexis but didn’t. He needs a little time on the bench but probably won’t get it.


We put in a performance today, against a very good team, away. Can we all get behind our fucking team please! You too stats man. FFS. Ozil/Sanchez Sell/Don’tSell DamnedDo/DamnedDon’t. Fuck off. COYG!!!

Faisal Narrage

Really hate this.
Screaming “COYG” and avoiding reasonable and objective discussions of the club doesn’t make you more of a fan than the rest of us.

Chris Siple

Great stats and comments. Thanks. I would suggest that City would have had more shots had they not led for most of the game. City was simply better than us. Had the last two goals not been allowed, they’d have pressed harder and I think they’d have gotten another one. Both teams missed some opportunities, but City missed more of them. You can ignore the two 2 on 1 breakaways if you like, but they certainly looked like “big chances” to me, though both were bottled by horrendous final passes. Like you, I was hoping Alexis and Ozil would be… Read more »


Except of dutch skunk wantaway in his last season for us. I believe we could not seen before that Alexis could turn out to be so shit. I remember the majority of the fans wanted to keep Alexis in the summer.


Meh. While the xG tally for City was lower than I expected it would be interesting to know what the expectation for a goal would’ve been if Sterling had managed to get a touch on Sane’s cross a yard out from goal. Even with the little shove from Kolasinic it seemed harder to miss that ball than to kick it in. And what about the expectation of a goal when you’re free 2 v 1 but because Sterling is such a sh*t player he doesn’t know how to drive hard for goal and force Koz to commit early and then… Read more »


Great players will make any ordinary player look better. I been playinga decent level of hockey for the last few years off the workloads of the better players around me. ahhaha although that has ended, I have officially dropped down the grades for next season, the ol body not coping anymore. Still, the point remains… better players make ordinary players look better if they are used in the system appropriately.


Surprised we’re missing the stat for ‘Percentage chance that Cech will ever save a penalty or just continue to dive before the player takes it to make it really easy for them to put it the other way’

Faisal Narrage

Although not covered or mentioned today, we know Xhaka gets dribbled past easily in games. The fact our 2 CMs both get dribbled past easily and also neither are great at dribbling (and thus relieving us of pressure when teams try to press our engine room) is one of the biggest issues of this squad for a while now.

Sometimes you sense Xhaka making a long past just because he can. He can see the opportunity to dribble forward but knows he can’t, so just doesn’t what he does best; makes a long pass, even if unnecessary.


2 tackles made by Özil who doesn’t defend, btw…


I agree with you Admin, The lacazette chance was not a big one…. He just awesome to convert that “just mire than half ” chance into a goal!

Nameless gunner

Someone should tell to Kolasinac that he is LB not LW.. someone make a stat of how many times he stopped running back while citeh were attacking!


Has Cech ever even dived the right way for a penalty? Maybe he should at least stand still in the middle of the goal.

Holy guns

Yeah. Maybe if he just stayed where he is or dive late, he might just be lucky, rather than fooling himself all the time.


“2 – If you take away those two shots for the penalty and the offside goal this was a game where Arsenal kept City to a season low 7 shots (even with the referee bonus Arsenal did keep them to a season low 9 shots), where Arsenal kept them to a season low 0.57 expected goals (even Arsenal did keep them to a season low 1.46 total expected goals not adjusting for the penalty), and where a 1-1 result would have been more than fair.” Isn’t that proof that our fans are just a bunch of morons? I mean we… Read more »


“1 – Strong suggestion that Arsene Wenger should the fuck have sold him this summer because keeping him has not proven to be a sound decision either financially or footballistically”

Spot on.

Alexis Signitplease

Regarding comments regarding Sanchez [going to MC at some point] before the game; “it won’t be like Ox against Liverpool”
tbf it wasn’t the same style, but the effect was exactly the same.


Would not mind if Alexis brings the Ox Effect to City in the winter transfer window so City can start losing games.


City players capables of dribbling through defenders= >5
Arsenals players capables of dribbling through defenders= <1.5
This explains a lot


0 big chance pass to Alexis, as Central striker, during the entire game.
2 big chance pass from Alexis to Ozil and Ramsey


Players may thought twice about passing the ball to Alexis after seeing him being wasteful all the time.

Original Paul

Here’s a plan. Start Lacca instead of Alexis and Jack instead of Ozil. If you like how about Welbeck ahead of Iwobi also?
It’s simple – wake up Arsene!!!


I wonder how often our classic back four played to the whistle for offsides?

A Person

Man city gets the Sheikhs bonus.

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