Arsenal have their fourth straight win in the Premier League and their fifth in all competitions with a 2-0 win over Everton. That is excellent! It has seem them shoot up the table to a tie for 5th place. Yet for all of the winning Arsenal have been less than impressive in the course of their winning streak.
Let’s explore Arsenal vs Everton, by the numbers, but first some advanced stats in picture form:
Shot On Target xG Map
Simulated Match Results
Cech saves Arsenal
6 – Shots on target allowed against Everton
35 – Shots on target allowed in the Premier League, 5th most among all teams.
6 – Saves by Petr Cech
26 – Total saves from Peter Cech in the Premier League, 4th most among all teams.
Everton put 67% of their shots, on target in this match (average is about 30%) and also produced a number of dangerous moments that because of Petr Cech (and some bad decision making) didn’t result in shots. In short it was a busy day between the posts for Cech and he really delivered.
Cech has been heavily criticized for his passing this season but he has really had a good season when it comes saving shots, especially considering how much pressure he is being put under by the Arsenal defense.
Based on the shots allowed Everton would typically have scored in this match over 70% of the time, looking at just the shots on target that number is 91% of the time. A congratulations on a hard earned clean sheet are in order to Petr Cech who should be the well deserved man of the match.
Özil’s lack of influence
21 – First half touches for Mesut Özil, third fewest among Arsenal players (Ramsey and Lacazette with less)
5 – First half forward passes completed for Mesut Özil.
0 – First half passes into the penalty box completed for Mesut Özil (1 attempted).
0.03 – First half Passing Value added for Mesut Özil.
-0.01 – First half Offense Value added for Mesut Özil, tied for 2nd worst among our outfield players.
0 – First half Chances Created for Mesut Özil.
0 – First half xG Chain for Mesut Özil.
Against a team that has less talent than Arsenal but will still attack at home is the exact match that Mesut Özil has dominated in his time at Arsenal. In this match he really struggled for long stretches and when Arsenal couldn’t do anything in the first half he was very much missing in action.
He ended up doing better in the second half of the match as Arsenal were able to get some control on the match, but it was still one of his worst matches of the season statistically. It is really hard to figure out what is going wrong with Arsenal’s attack, but the shoehorning of the attacking players into positions that are not natural should be a leading theory. Unai Emery has to figure out the best way to use the attacking talent at his disposal for Arsenal to have any chance at a successful season.
#Project24 rolls on
After the Chelsea match, Clive @clivepafc from twitter and the Arsenal Vision Post match podcast coined the term #Project24 for the next eight matches that Arsenal have. Arsenal have collected 12 points so far from the possible 24. Running my simulation getting between 19 and 21 points is the most common occurrences. Getting the full 24 points has gone from just over a 2% chance to over 12% now that Arsenal are over half way there.
Getting the full 24 points from these matches would go a long way to putting Arsenal in contention for a top four spot this season.