Saturday, September 30, 2023

Southampton 1-0 Arsenal: By the numbers

It is going to be a quick one because it’s a holiday weekend and I don’t want to make myself even miserable with extra time thinking too deeply about this match.

Southampton 1-0 Arsenal: By the graphics

Southampton 1-0 Arsenal: By the numbers

23 – Shots from Arsenal

7 – Shots from within 15 meters

1 – Big chance

0.06 – Expected goals per shot for Arsenal

On paper, 23 shots seems pretty good but in this match Arsenal had a lot of low and medium quality chances. They had just one chance that was 20% or more to be a goal (the Saka chance), they had just two additional chances that were more than 10%. On top of it this was a match where Fraiser Foster made a few good saves on the chances Arsenal could get on target.

79 – Times Arsenal moved the ball into the final third in this match

14.2 – Final third passes needed to generate a shot (full game)

43 – Final third passes needed to generate a shot in the first half

In this match, Arsenal spent a lot of time in the final third but really struggled to actually threaten the Southampton goal.

7.06 – Arsenal expected goals for their shots since the Liverpool Match

2 – Arsenal’s goals since the Liverpool Match

Arsenal haven’t played especially great during this run but they have also picked one of the worst times to go on a cold finishing run. Some of the xG accumulation is due to being behind in these matches but the general performances have not looked great.

On defense, it is the opposite story. Arsenal have allowed 8 goals from 4.53 expected goals.

Luck and performance have not been on Arsenal’s side and that has seen things go south fast on the table.

That’s it for today. I hope you all enjoy your Easter, Passover, Ramadan or just rest of you weekend and can get over this loss.


Sources: Opta via whoscored, my own database, the Danny Page Longterm expected goals simulator for the graphics above.


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Statistical waste of time. I could have told you the real problems. Arsenal fans deserve this. Wishful thinking as per usual. I’ve been watching footy and Arsenal for a long while now. Blatantly obvious where we are going. Rust the Process. If it wasn’t for more gymnastics with sites like this massaging words to make some feel better about the teams ‘progress’ rather than obvious deficiencies that were not addressed and continue to be mishandled… 1) Arteta was always a gamble. An unripe assistant manager under the leg of Pep bigged up to convince Arsenal fans he was the next… Read more »

A Different George

Well, I think you are being a bit selective. Arsenal actually bought six players in the last summer window, two of them clearly intended as backups. The other four, all young, are nailed-on starters (Ramsdale, Tomiyasu, White, and Odegaard).

Nacho de Montreal is tasty

True but we all got fooled by the solid run of the last two months. We were actually mediocre in the cup competitions and got eliminated easily. Our players had plenty of time to be rested. There were times when we played one game in three weeks. Everything outside the club was in our favour to achieve something this year but we didn’t.


Time to play Elneny instead of Sambi against Chelsea?


The phrase “Arsenal fans deserve this” will probably get you most down votes. Arsenal fans deserve much better for their continued support and backing.


Wow, and you think the article was a waste of time.

Also, let us not mention Overmaars as a possible appointment again.


10000 words to tell us how great and essential xhaka is. Thanks Mikel…

Mayor McCheese

Thanks, Scott. At least we know Cedric enjoyed his Easter with all those crosses.

Coat’s already on, so no bother.


Nailed it.


I see what you did there.


Let’s just hope Tomi will appear again.


This was not being unlucky.
This is just Arsenal.
At least come the middle of May we won’t have to see or hear about them for three months.
That is three months to spend £150 million or so on players who won’t improve the team.
Something that Arteta is very good at…


Party, Odegaard, Tomi, White, Ramsdale whilst overseeing the rise of Saka, ESR and Martinelli and improvement of Gabriel.

Don’t let the facts get in the way of your agenda though

A Different George

For me, these statistics tend to confirm my impression: the main problem was missing a striker who presented a consistent threat of scoring, whose runs created spaces–and therefore higher-quality chances–for Saka, Martinelli, and Smith Rowe. This was a match we totally dominated in every other way, even without Partey’s ability to move the ball forward quickly. But we couldn’t finish.


This ignores that Arsenal under Arteta have ALWAYS been too static in possession. He never has runners going. Pass the ball around the outside, then back. Chuck a cross in. It’s Maths.


Hard to be anything but static when one of your main fulcrums of possession gets out run by snails.

Hank Scorpio

We have consistently struggled to create chances under Arteta despite having a guy renowned for being prolific with a career built on making intelligent runs, noting he’s still making them and now being rewarded for it. Rather than that we need a physical presence to hold up the ball and bring our other attacking players into the play, hence the pursuit of Vlahovic. Whether that’s the missing puzzle piece that will make Artetaball magically click is another question. If he is given the opportunity to sign that striker (or 2) I certainly wouldn’t extend his contract until there’s evidence that… Read more »

A Different George

I’m not sure we are disagreeing, except on language. But I don’t think we are looking for Giroud, I think we are looking for Aguero.


3 straight loses and we’re still only 3 points off CL !! 🎉


…with a game in hand

Man Manny

Point of correction: We don’t have a game in hand; we have a bad loss at Stamford Bridge in hand.


True but it’s 3 losses against Palace, Brighton and Southampton. The next games are Chelse, United, West Ham and spuds. Unless something changes drastically, 7th-8th seems very likely.

Jean Ralphio

These are teams that have beaten top sides too. They were never going to be easy fixtures. We should have won today but compared to the previous 2 games at least we controlled the game better. It’s possibly a performance to build on depending on how morale is. Btw our top 4 rivals have tricky games too. We’re not out of it would be my message to the team if I was Arteta.


Yes but we would need to win a game to take advantage and I can’t see the next one coming yet. We could be on 7/8 defeats in a row if we’re not careful.


Yeah, I know. I’d been out clubbing on Friday night (I’m 51 and should no better) so was on a bit of a comedown yesterday!! 😂 Sometimes though, a hard match can focus minds. It is a long shot but any result against Chelsea could put us back on course…..and they are playing today so will hopefully pick up 10 key injuries! Utd are shit and West Ham have got a huge European distraction before we play them. On current form, we’re doomed but the whole season has been peaks and troughs….the positive thing is it’s still in our own… Read more »


True, still in our hands, and seems like nobody really wants 4th haha. It’s gonna be an interesting last weeks of the season


We just need something to click. I’m an Arteta fan, but he now needs to step up and find the solution….it is still in our grasp !! x


Gabriel at it again…how he keeps Holding out of the team beats me…well,you don’t have to be so surprised,he kept playing Laca ahead of Auba and he still didn’t score..Arteta has given his best,it’s not up to what we deserve at Arsenal..he and Edu should leave


Edu added four starters to the squad last summer. What’s your problem with that?

Man Manny

Which other team in the EPL would they be starters?
Mediocrity is even permeating the fanbase.


What do you mean, White was clearly the one at fault for their goal. Gabriel played ok.


Re xG simulator, fwiw, it really is astonishing how often opponents’ “hit and hope” approach comes good while our attackers can’t execute things they have trained their whole lives to do.


Lacazette has scored 2 goals from open play all season. Nketiah 0 goals total. There has never been a point in this clubs history (or maybe any pl clubs history) where their main strikers have been so shit. My fucking god how can you have players like Saka, Ødegaard, Smith Rowe, Tierney, Martinelli even, and still score so few goals. Artetas tactics probably dont help, but still 2 goals total after 31 games is an absolute joke. Im so happy both Lacazette and Nketiah arent in the club after the summer.


The team generate so few chances for the CF it’s hardly surprising though. That’s the big problem iwth inverted wingers and a number 10 that isn’t that creative.


All so true but there is a big upside. It was a given that we needed to move on from AubaLacaBillyPepe and that hasn’t happened yet. All other areas are on the up and I’d content thats even with the current injury nightmare.


Useless Fucking Crosses From Cedric.

Three million, eight hundred and forty nine thousand, seven hundred and fifty six.


Look at that xG with the score tied. Arteta out.


The refusal to put Martinelli as striker will be the downfall of Arteta. Perfect game to do. Goes with Nketiah

Man Manny

Martinell is not the answer by any stretch of the imagination. He’d be almost useless in a low block too.


Totally agree.

The Frank Spencer Five (Eddie, Lacazette, Cedric, Tavares and Xhaka) have been – and will probably continue to be – the downfall of this season.

Man Manny

Whooever’s decision it was to go into February with Lacazette and Nketiah as our strikers – in a team having designs on top 4 – should be fired. If it was a collective decision, then those heads should roll. It is the single most frustrating decision in Arsenal, for me, since Arsene decided not to strengthen in ’15 – ’16 when we lost the title to Leicester. I am beginning to believe those who have been saying that Arteta is out of his depth. If you have to have all your first 11 in place to win a football match,… Read more »


They tried to sign a striker but they went elsewhere and none others were available… Newcastle paid £20m for Chris Woods because he had a buyout clause… That tells you everything.


40 – number of minutes wasted waiting for Forster to distribute the ball.


What generated Southampton that large XG jump around the 6th minute mark? I don’t remember them having a better chance than that Saka chance that for should be at least a 0.5 xG…

Little Tripoli

Broja flashes a ball across the goal. Their guy – with a defender between him and goal – completely missed it. Think that counts as a model miscalibration tbh. Saka’s a much better chance imo.

Little Tripoli

XG philosophy has it at approx.3 which seems fairer. (And us out at 1.7, which is probably rating Saka’s chance higher). Would be fun to know how their model differs from Scott’s. Suspect it may be more sophisticated eg. Re: velocity of preceding pass/ control of the player over the shot.


What a great photo to headline the numbers firstly. Secondarilisitally fucking relax everyone. Watching this team they are losing right now but they aren’t getting beat or beat on if you know what I mean. Its a group full of young talent being given a chance to develop which is always going to include losing. Watching them I see them figuring out how turn these games around even if it hasn’t obviously happened for us recently. Look at the xGA’s and be honest that watching you thought we deserved nothing from these three games. Also obviously we need a goddamn… Read more »


They have literally only “turned a game around” once. And that was when Lacazette scored from open play.

I don’t know what it is you’re seeing, but I see them NOT figuring out how to turn games around.

And I understand kids these days are used to constant praise, but I don’t think we should be handing out gold stars for not getting battered by midtable teams.


Goals this season
Pukki Norwich 10
Lacca/ Eddie 4
That’s the only stat you need to see our problem

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