How do you know if your team has gotten better? I mean overall, not just in terms of one thing. For example, Arsenal take more shots this year than last: 15.4 shots per game this season, 13.8 last season, so, are Arsenal better?
Maybe.
The most common way that people judge improvement is by position in the table at the end of the season. This is the fairest assessment of the club because the table very rarely lies. In that case, Arsenal are currently in third place, level on points with Man City but below them on goal difference. Arsenal finished 4th last season and so, if Arsenal finish the season in their current position (or higher since Man City has a game in hand), they will have shown some improvement in terms of the League table.
League table position is the most accurate measure because the League is a round-robin tournament: every team plays every other team, home and away. I’m not trying to condescend here, because I’m sure that you already know how the League works, but rather I’m explaining this because sometimes stats folks like to abstract a team’s single season stats and compare them to another season in order to draw a conclusion about whether the team in question is performing better.
For example, last season Arsenal averaged 2.08 points per game and this season Arsenal are earning just 2.03 points per game. That means last season Arsenal were a better team, right? Wrong. In the context of this season, with 6-7 teams vying for a top 4 finish, 2.03 points per game is the second best PPG rate in the League. In the context of last season, with two teams streets ahead of everyone else, scoring 100+ goals, 2.08 PPG was 4th best.
I have a theory that fan perception of improvement comes largely from a team’s record against other top clubs. You probably didn’t know this but for the last two seasons running, Arsenal have been nearly perfect against bottom half teams. Arsenal have only lost 1 match in the 37 times they have played against bottom 10 opposition in the last two seasons. Arsenal only even have 4 draws in those matches as well. That means Arsenal have won 32/37 matches against the bottom 10 teams in the League over the last two seasons. That record is unrivaled by any other club in England. Against the same opposition, Chelsea have lost 4 and drawn 6 in the last two seasons.
But against the top teams, and especially the top 7 teams, Arsenal’s record falls apart pretty quickly. Last season, against the top 7 teams, Arsenal conceded 23 goals in 12 matches. Worse, they conceded 18 goals in the 6 matches against the other top four teams. That season, Arsenal conceded 41 goals all total, so the 18 that they gave up to their top four rivals comprised 44% of the season total. It’s no wonder they only won 1 match in the top-four mini League:
This season there have been green shoots of improvement but nothing like a whole Himalayan Blackberry bush.
Against top 4 opposition Arsenal went from conceding 3 goals a game to just 1. I’ll take that as a start! You’ll note that there isn’t much difference so far in the win/draw/loss column, but if Arsenal beat Manchester United they will leap up the mini-League table into second place. Which, while it would be an improvement, it’s nothing quite like the dominance of Chelsea, who haven’t lost to a top four rival in two years.
Against top 7 teams, things don’t get much better for Arsenal. Last season, Arsenal were terrible, though could take comfort from the fact that we were slightly less terrible than Tottenham and Man U. But still W2 D4 L5 is a pretty shocking record:
This season, Arsenal are slightly better in terms of PPG, but in the same place in terms of top 7 table position. Essentially, The Gunners have won 1 more match this season (Man City) against top 7 teams:
I think the one massive improvement this season is that Arsenal don’t have a -13 goal difference against these teams, like they did last season. That might not seem like an important fact but the way Arsenal were totally owned by Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool, and City certainly impacted the mental state of the team, hurt our League standing, and ultimately killed any chance of winning the League.
As an aside, note that Arsenal’s only remaining top 7 opponent is Man U. Man U is going to be a tough match for Arsenal because they have done a 180 turn on their performances against top teams from last season to this. I think this record against top teams is the major reason why van Gaal is seen as an improvement over Moyes. If Wenger can get three points against United it will qualify as an improvement this season. And if he can continue to get some improvement against top teams next season, while continuing Arsenal’s amazing dominance over bottom 10 teams, Arsenal will win the League.
Defensively, Arsenal haven’t improved much if any at all. Last season, Arsenal conceded 1.08 goals per game and this season they are conceding 0.97. In the context of the average number of goals conceded per game in the Premier League last season (1.38) and this season (1.32) the difference between our goals allowed record last season versus this season is a mere 0.04 per game or 1.52 fewer goals over a 38 game season. It’s more accurate to say that the Premier League has seen a dip in scoring this season than to say that Arsenal have gotten better at defending. And remember, Arsenal have been on a defensive tear since January, conceding just 9 goals in 14 matches. If they continue that run of defending, perhaps we can say that they have gotten better defensively but so far? No.
And finally, if we want to look at Arsenal’s goal scoring prowess, again, I think we need to look at that in the League context. On average last season, Premier League teams scored 1.38 goals per game. This season, Premier League teams are scoring 1.32 goals per game. Last season, Arsenal scored 1.79 goals per game, putting them +0.41 goals per game over the League average. This season, Arsenal have scored 1.91 goals per game which makes them +0.59 goals per game over the League average. That means Arsenal have improved 0.18 goals per game in the context of the League, which while it might not seem like much is the equivalent of almost 7 goals a season improvement (0.18*38).
Overall, it looks like Arsenal are improving but in increments rather than leaps and bounds that some might want you to believe. But at least there is improvement!
@7amkickoff
I think this team has very little to improve on anyway. And every little improvement will come slowly but surely. But fixing the record against the top seven I think is the key to this team achieving success in the premier league. Which will then give us confidence in europe. Be patient. Thats a quality football fans don’t have unfortunately.
TL;DR?
What else would you do here except read.
Well at least, at the time of writing, there are 4 people who got the joke. Bad news though, buddy, you didn’t make the cut. Maybe next time.
I get to work on the northern line and have no time for patience. That bloody tube line needs to improve drastically to match a more competent line. This is just a random rant on patience.
Its not called the ‘misery line’ for nothing.
I think You will find Arsenal are the ones with a game in hAnd.
7 goals could be spread out over 7 games. Considering we drew just about 7 games this season, 7 more could be just enough for us to win it next season
Gradual improvement is the better kind because it’s generally more sustainable and represents actual improvement, not just a streak. And it’s less likely to be down to just 1 or 2 players. Liverpool went from mediocrity to challenging for the title because of the improvement of one player (plus Sturridge I guess). Then that player left, and now they’re looking just as useless as before. I would like to think the era of Arsenal’s standout performers being poached is over but nobody is immune to Real Madrid and Barca except maybe Bayern Munich. If one of the two spanish giants… Read more »
Or on the Spuds end, they had one 9/10 and a bunch of 4/10s except for Lloris, even though he’s playing for the wrong team, I gotta respect his ability. But you won’t get the respect you deserve for as long as you play for them Spuds.
Time will tell if we are willing to match or at least come close to what those other teams offer financially and also if we can stay competitive at the top while trying to develop some of our own talent from a young age
If we could tempt Lloris to come over to the right side of North London that would be both excellent and hilarious.
would he be that much of an improvement on our other 2 good keepers?
I’m not sure Ospina has done much to lose his place plus the D seem to like playing in front of him.
Barca and Madrid just got fucked by the new Spanish TV deal, they’re only allowed four times as much as the bottom team (compared to twice in Germany and 1.5 in England IIRC). The Primera Liga rights are worth less than a fifth of the EPL rights…
I think the improvement in the defence since January will continue. The introduction of Coquelin, Bellerin, Gabriel and Monreal has really tightened things up and added real depth and quality at the back, which had been missing for several years before now. Arsenal will not be easy to beat in future.
When talking improvement of the squad, one can also consider improvement of individuals. Giroud, Özil and Monreal have taken big steps forward. The Ox, too. Coquelin and Bellerin improved so incredibly that they have come from outside the team to make massive contributions. Ramsey and maybe Mertesacker are the only players who haven’t performed at the level of last season, and both could offer reasons why. Hope to see steps forward from all squad members in 15/16!
The player that doesn’t look to have a place, despite a promising start, is Calum Chambers. He was called up for England, but now is third choice RB at Arsenal and fourth Choice CB, and fourth or fifth DM. Being so versatile means he may get games, but not sure if he can nail down a regular first team position in future. He is young so has time on his side, but then again, so is Bellerin.
I’m really looking forward to our game against United. We haven’t beaten them in the league since 2011, but I think we have a real chance of doing so this time around.
Do that and I think we can be rest assured of finishing either 2nd or 3rd and avoiding the headache of a summer CL qualifier.
Important game. Can’t wait.
We ought to be in a position where the game is a dead rubber by then, considering how bad Man U have managed to be in the last few games. If we arn’t 4 points ahead of them by then it’s going to feel like failure.
They certainly are looking awful at the moment, beaten by boring boring Chelsea, beaten by Everton, beaten by West Bromich Awful…
Would love to see us win a bit ugly more often, even like at ManC earlier this season.
Record v the big teams needs improving
So let me get this straight – basically, you’re saying that Arsenal are definitely 100% going to win the league next year?
In all seriousness, fab article, really interesting and insightful. Our record against the bottom clubs is truly astonishing. Here’s to more improvement next season, finally beating Mourinho’s extremely interesting team and giving the spuds a couple of long overdue tonkings!!
Don’t we have the game in hand not city?
Yeah, I picked up on that, too. Arsenal have the game in hand, not city!
No question that defensively we’ve improved with Coquelin since January.
Excellent article, a textbook example of how to use statistics for good instead of evil.
Arsenal can really go places as soon as Wenger gives up his dream of walking the ball into the net.It has been said a thousand times.His possession style vs speed is the problem. He was lucky against Chelsea when Ospina clattered into Oscar following a quick Chelsea counter. He has been regularly beaten by Chelsea and the other big teams with ball passing in the opponent’s goal. When you watch othe r big teams play,you wonder why.And don’t think AV will be easy meat. The gunners styel is a recipe for a quick Benteke goal. Hull have shown the way… Read more »
I feel when we are playing against the top teams away, we should play with a more compact shape and use the pace of guys like Sanchez, ox, welbeck etc.on the counter. Exactly the way we did at Etihad this season. We reduce the risk of losing by using this approach.
And points in these games play a huge role in league standings.
Great article.
And does this give the lie to managers who (understandably) claim that there are no “6 point games”?
Anyway, reminds me that a Liverpool supporting mate wished that he had articles to read as insightful as the ones we get here!
Man I love 7 AM Kick off. So proud he’s a Gooner. Look at this great article!
Excellent stats, showing how the team have improved & need to keep improving for the next next season.
And, can the media please stop backing up chelshit on the ‘boring’ thing? I’m totally fucked up, to see & read so so many articles defending the ‘boring’ thing.
Makes interesting reading, I think it’s worth noting that the man utd loss has skewed the top 4 mini lge.
We battered them and really should have won easily, if we had we’d be 2nd in that little league… performances have improved more than the points/mini league illustrates i’d say
Good article thanks for the effort but I think there are a couple of issues with it. a) The numbers don’t stack up, I’ve done a quick excel sheet of the league and my gpg season average for this year is 1.28 b) I think you are skewing the numbers and arsenal’s improvement slightly by not removing from your averages arsenal’s performances each season before calculating averages. If you were to do this 2014 gpg: 1.34 (vs 1.79 = +0.45) and 2015 gpg:1.23 (vs 1.91 = +0.68) this signifies a whooping 51% increase based on the league average and an… Read more »
Although it’s an incremental improvement over last season, I’d be interested is seeing the difference when comparing the first half of this season to the second half, because the most notable improvement has come since the start of 2015. This makes me very excited and optimistic about next year!
And with the start of the second half of the season the return of key players. Obviously!
Yeah, I think the injuries are the primary reason the improvement looks incremental. A secondary reason was the inability (gamble?) to bring in a third CB (notwithstanding Chambers). I think we dropped a lot of points early on with Kos injured & Per struggling.
eh, Arsenal always seem to play well in half seasons. Or the calendar year we were best in the league recently, never August to May!
Interesting to look at the record for boring, boring Chelsea in the games against top-4 and top-7 opposition, only two losses to top-7 teams in the last two seasons but 9 draws. In the matches against City and Chelsea in the second half of this season, it looks like Arsene might be taking a little more of this approach of playing not to lose in the big matches and hoping to nick points in a tight game. Taking 4 points from 6 against the top two teams (at the moment) in the run-in shows if Arsenal can do the same… Read more »