Arsenal won 3-1 over Sunderland today but there was a sense at full time that the scoreline was a bit flattering for the Gunners.
The reason fans felt Arsenal were lucky was probably down to the fact that (once again) Petr Cech came to Arsenal’s rescue. Cech saved all four Sunderland shots on goal, 2 of which counted as “big chances” or chances that we would normally expect to see the opposition score. One of those chances was from inside the six yard box, about a yard off the line, with Cech scrambling on the ground.
Those saves keep Cech top of the League in terms of Big Chance save percentage with 67%. Second in that regard is Hugo Lloris with 60%. To give you a point of comparison, Schmeichel (Leicester City’s keeper) is only saving 19% of the Big Chances he’s faced.
Cech deserved the clean sheet for his performance but Olivier Giroud became the third Arsenal player to score an own goal this season. The Gunners lead the League in own goals with Chambers, Arteta, and Giroud all helping the opposition.
Cech was so good today that he even made a save off a Monreal chested backpass which won’t show on the stat sheet but which saved us from scoring 4 own goals already this season.
I haven’t thought of a way to quantify how many point Cech has saved this season. With the score at 2-1 he made two saves so did he save us just the one point, 2 points, or all three? I’m interested to hear your thoughts on that.
Arsenal have conceded 5 big chances in the last three matches. That’s pretty poor considering the fact that we conceded 17 all season (avg: 1.33) and 12 in the previous 13 matches (avg: .92). I’m not ready to compare Arsenal with Flamini to Arsenal with Coquelin but early signs are that Flamini isn’t shielding as well as Coquelin and the opposition are getting great shots off against Arsenal.
That was surely the case early on in this match today. Officially, Flamini only missed one tackle, but that’s just because Opta counts tackles funny. From their events definitions page:
A tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the man in possession. All tackles are really a successful event.
A Tackle Won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”.
A Tackle Lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player.
Flamini went flying in twice early on but never made contact with the ball so neither of those count as tackles. He also was dribbled by early in the game in a play where he didn’t even attempt a tackle.
What Arsenal did do well is create big chances and that has to continue or the team will struggle, especially as long as Alexis is out. Arsenal created 4 big chances on the day which is a great number and takes our season average to 3 per game and keeps Arsenal in the very top in terms of total with 47. Arsenal also scored two of the 4 big chances, with Campbell and Ramsey both scoring big chances.
That was Campbell’s third big chance of the season (League play only) and he’s scored 2/3 but it was Ramsey’s 5th of the season and he finally scored one to go 1/5. According to Opta, Ramsey had three big chances on the day, all in the second half.
Ramsey also took 7 shots today, to lead all players, and also created 4 shots for teammates. He led all players with 15 ball recoveries and 5 of them were in the opposition half. But he only had 1 interception and went 0/1 on tackles. So much for Ramsey “curbing” his desire to get forward, eh?
Özil got his 12th assists on the season with Campbell’s goal and while his streak was broken against West Brom, Özil can boast an incredible output of an assist or a goal in all but 3 of his last 15 matches for club and country. Those three were Arsenal 2-3 Olympiacos, Ireland 1-0 Germany, and Bayern 5-1 Arsenal. In that period he has 11 assists and 4 goals. It’s just nuts.
Özil also created 5 shots for his teammates today taking his season total to 63. That total makes him far and away the leading creator in all the top five leagues in Europe. The second best is Boudebouz at Montpelier with 55, then Neymar with 49, Payet with 47, and Hazard with 44.
One thing to watch over the next few weeks with Alexis and Cazorla out is the total number of dribbles Arsenal make. The Gunners are the best dribbling team in the League averaging 13.3/20.2 successful dribbles per game. But today, missing their top two dribblers, they were just 9/19. Özil led Arsenal with 3/4 dribbles, Ramsey was 2/4, Walcott was 1/4, and Ox (who is normally one of our best dribblers) went 0/1.
Yann M’Vila put on a pretty good audition for Arsene Wenger, if the Arsenal boss is interested. The 25 year old Frenchman is the best player at Sunderland and his class showed today. He led Sunderland in passes with 34/39 — that’s 87% on a team that completed just 72% of their passes — he created that one big chance for D. Watmore, he took all their corners (1/2), led them in ball recoveries with 10, led them with tackles with 4/4, had 2 interceptions, made a bicycle clearance, and it was his pass that created the own goal.
Not sure if M’Vila is over the personal problems that put Arsene off him a few years back but he seems a capable DM and could do a job for Arsenal in January. If the boss is interested (I have no evidence that he is, just saying).
The Cann Table
The Cann table is a visual representation of how close teams are in the League table. Created by Jenny Cann, a Gooner who sadly passed away in 2003, the Cann table gives one slot to each point earned in Premier League play. By presenting the data this way, fans can see the gaps between clubs. I didn’t do a complete Cann table for the season, just the top teams, because I didn’t want this article to be a huge scroller. But I did do the tables for the last 4 years after 15 League games, I think it shows just how close this season’s title race is.
Here’s this season’s table:
As you can see, it’s real tight among the top four, then a gap between them and Liverpool which is filled in by a load of Tottenham.
Here’s what the table looked like last year after 15 games:
Chelsea hadn’t quite completely run away with the League by December but the gap between 1st and 3rd was huge. And Arsenal had no real chance of winning the League with a 13 point gap.
Two years ago, Arsenal were top of the League and there was a huge gap, but below them the League was significantly tighter:
And then three seasons ago:
Yet another blow out with only two teams realistically fighting for the League.
Literally, this is the closest title race in years.
@7amkickoff
Sources: Opta, Statto.com, my database, and Mike Pitt’s Cann Table.
Hahahahaha Chelsea.
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Tough game today, at times made it hard for ourselves more than they did. Imo we played at 60% of our capabilities when say compared to utd performance….and still won, albeit the score flattering us. Took my 8 year old son today for first game, so thanks again for winning! Support through highs and lows, COYG!!
that is sweet.
I brought by own son when he was 8 at Highbury against Bolton (finished 1.1).
Now he is 20 and he brings me to games.
i live in toronto. hope to emulate – albeit at emirates.
With most teams being so poor this season ,Wenger must spend in january to provide cover in midfield especially. If he buys well Arsenal can very well win this league. Flamini must only be an emergency cover.
So you don’t think it’s a case of the smaller teams being better this year…
Just the bigger teams being poor…..
we worry about depth. but if other teams lost their defensive shield, energizer and magician having only to rely on a wizard & a wrapped in wool giroud, then they would be effed. we’ve got campbell fighting for a place, flamini doing a wile e coyote version of arteta, chambers finding his way, and ramsey, the ox and walcott nursing their way back and we’re second in the league. as long as we don’t suffer any more double injury games, we are okay. if a paulista, monreal is available – sure. otherwise, no need to splurge.
Everything became rosy after a win! When will Wilshere and Welbeck come back, be fit then sharp playing for Arsenal?
“Wenger must spend __________.”
Like everyone says, every window. Even when he bought Alexis, chambers, debuchy, etc in the same window people demanded more. Even if this time I agree that it wouldn’t hurt, it gets so tiresome. Saying it in the comments won’t make it happen.
I know it’s been said so many times and it just sounds boring and bitter now, but damn! It’s a big fuckin shame we were robbed 5pts against the chavs and Liverpool. We would’ve been 3 pts clear WITH all the fuckin injuries AND the shit show at Norwich and West Brom. Hope they don’t cost us the league.
Best bit is that Ha Ha Ha.
That cracked me up big time
If we go into Europa I would play all the kids in the first match just to get or of the competition… Yes that’s pitiful and sad and not up to Arsenal standards but with a title race this close, I don’t care what we do if it gives us an edge. The Manchesters did this a few years ago.
Focus on the positive. Ozil was magnificent from start to finish. He will lead us over the line in May if he keeps this up.
Sorry you Bobby Pires supporters who thought that the ‘special one’ would never be surpassed…..Ozil is different class ,and will.
Excellent Saturday!
A slightly fortunate win was enhanced by boring United drawing blanks again; but the pièce de résistance was the Chavs being humiliated at home by plucky Bournemouth. How is Maureen still in a job? And you’ve got to admire Leicester, but they won’t last. Spuds slipped up too.
This sets us up perfectly for mid week: I think we’ll go to Greece and win it 3-1 to go through.
Strange to see Giroud score at both ends, but I suppose it proves that Oliver doesn’t mind where he sticks it in – just like Cristiano-Ronaldo.
Has he* been fired yet?
*The specialist in scumbag!
Are you really the Fat Gooner or am I hallucinating. Have you been visited by the ghost of Christmas Past? After reading your post,I could swear you must have seen a ghost. I’m sorry, and I’m not trying to be rude,but your post is not something I’m used to reading from you.There were actually more positives than negatives. Hope you are feeling okay.
What did I tell you pre match?
Onwards now to wednesday
I miss the simplified number followed by dash and sentence. E.g.
9 – successfully passes by blah blah.
Nice article tho.
Thanks for the feedback. I mix it up now, but maybe I’ll give you a Christmas present!
I think your columns are always insightful and analytical. They pick up on topical themes and help to statistically address some of the perceived narratives around Arsenal.
They offer something I haven’t seen anywhere else, and its excellent.
Please keep it going.
Thanks.
I like the results that flatters our performance.
Far too many times its been the other way around in our new stadium, though not so much in recent past.
However, let’s not get carried away about being second, it’s one of the bottom clubs. Also we are in the middle (seriously it would be ridiculous if it gets any worse) of one of our injury crisis.
“With the score at 2-1 he made two saves so did he save us just the one point, 2 points, or all three? I’m interested to hear your thoughts on that.” In this game Cech saved us 3 points in my opinion, if Sunderland had scored those two to make it 3-2, then they would have shut up shop and we would probably not have gotten our third. “Not sure if M’Vila is over the personal problems that put Arsene off him a few years back but he seems a capable DM and could do a job for Arsenal in… Read more »
If you count “points saved” that way, you are comparing Arsenal’s results with Cech to Arsenal’s performance without a goalkeeper. I do not think that would be terribly illucidating. If you want to see how many extra points Cech is worth, you have to compare his saves made to something more elusive, and then pile up conditional assumptions. The interesting measure would be Cech vs. expected saves of the average BPL goalkeeper, or Cech vs. Opsina/Szceszny (’13/’14). Those measures would be what EBJT had in mind, I think, when he said “Cech would be worth 10 points” in league, or… Read more »
Another way to look at this is that, without Cech, Arsenal would have opened this campaign just as poorly as the last few, excepting ’13, despite all the “improvements” elsewhere. And if there’s one thing Wenger almost certainly isn’t in control of, it’s the performance of Cech against a given shot. So it seems more like Arsenal are still struggling to make the final jump to “world class” up front, in midfield, and at the back.
I think M’Vila would be just about the perfect signing. Not too big a name as to expect to be automatic no.1 DM but good enough so that Coq has quality cover and very good competition on his hands once fit again.
Wenger obviously rates him, his off-field issues are over. It makes perfect sense.
Which is why it probably won’t happen.
I don’t think anyone can really quantify how many points per game Cech saves us. It’s just too subjective.
What I think we can do fairly safely is pick games where he very likely did save us some points. Whether it’s 1 or 2 or 3.
So instead of counting points I would probably count games.
Arsenal; goals conceded 13, goal difference 14, points 30
Chelski; goals conceded 24, goal difference -7, points 15.
Halve the difference to find the impact of Petr.
If we can stick around top 4 till January, then we may have a chance of winning the league, we will have some players back (Welbeck, Wilshere, Sanchez, Rosicky) and maybe 1 or 2 new signings that can help push for the title.
I really don’t mind if we have to win ugly up until then.
#COYG
Blogs, you should also mention: the highest points taken by the top 4 teams is lesser this year. Hence the points NOT being taken by them must be taken by the lower team, which is why they are so much closer to the top.