Football is a funny old game. In one match, your team can struggle to get a shot on target until the 69th minute and score on your first shot on target. In the next match, your team can get their first shot on goal in 11th minute, get 24 total shots, 11 on target, and not score a single goal.
But actually, it’s not that funny. It’s a truth of probability that is often obfuscated by the big and fancy stats. Just like rolling a 7 with a pair of dice is a 16.7% probability, over a season, a team will probably finish more than 9.5% of their chances. Arsenal are currently finishing… 11% of their shots in all competitions. But that doesn’t mean that every game or every roll of dice will feature an 11% conversion. If it had, Arsenal would have scored 2.64 goals today against Hull and Craps would be a very boring game with every 6th roll coming up 7.
11% isn’t horrible and is Arsenal’s rate in ALL competitions. In the League, Leicester are converting 11.7% if we remove their 8 penalties and Man City just 10%. Of course, in the League, Arsenal are converting… ugh 8.7%.
Arsene knows… As Wenger said today after the FA Cup match against Hull:
We need to be more efficient in the final third, because today we had more than 70 per cent possession and we will not have that on Tuesday night (against Barcelona). That means we’ll have to be more efficient with much less of the ball.
More efficiency please!
As for the FA Cup match against Hull today, there were some positives to take out of the game along with some negatives. Here they are in classic 7amkickoff Index style:
The Good…
4 – Walcott shots (led all players)
3 – Welbeck shots (2nd among all players)
6 – Welbeck and Walcott shots on target (3 each, led all players)
3 – Calum Chambers key passes (led all players)
3 – Calum Chambers successful crosses (3/6, led all players)
2 – Calum Chambers crosses that were key passes
101 – Calum Chambers passes (led all players)
97 – Elneny passes (2nd among all players)
48 – Calum Chambers passes in the Hull final 1/3 (led all players)
47 – Elneny passes in the Hull final 1/3 (2nd among all players)
5 – Dribbles by Alexis (of 5, led all players)
4 – Dribbles by Welbeck (of 5, 2nd)
3 – Dribbles by Chambers
2013 – The last time Arsenal lost in the FA Cup was February 2013
14 – Consecutive wins in the FA Cup (not a record)
15 – Match undefeated streak in the FA Cup (not a record)
The Bad…
2 – Shots on target by Alexis in the last 3 games
11 – Shots Alexis has taken in the last 3 games
33 – Percent of Alexis’ shots that have been on target for Arsenal this season (29/89)
42 – Percent of Alexis’ shots that were on target for Arsenal last season (72/171)
100 – Percent chance Alexis looked shot today
100 – Percent chance that Alexis will be played on Tuesday
100 – Percent of himself he will give in that match
The Ugly…
12 – Turnovers by Danny Welbeck (7 dispossessed, 5 poor first touch — led all players)
3 – Turnovers by Danny Welbeck in the Hull City 18 yard box
1 – “Turnover” by Danny Welbeck in the Hull City 18 yard box that looked like a stonewall penalty to me
7 – Turnovers by Walcott, none of which were stonewall penalties
4 – Turnovers by Calum Chambers
2 – Turnovers by Calum Chambers in the Hull City 18 yard box
1 – “Turnover” by Calum Chambers in the Hull City 18 yard box that looked like a stonewall penalty to me
1 – “Turnover” by Harry Maguire in the Arsenal 18 yard box that also looked like a stonewall penalty to me
57 – Arsenal Matches Mike Dean has refereed
9 – Total penalties he has awarded in all of those 57 matches (3 for Arsenal, 6 for Arsenal’s opponents)
60 – Chelsea matches Mike Dean has refereed
20 – Total penalties he has awarded in those Chelsea matches (11 for Chelsea, 9 for the opposition)
51 – Man U matches Mike Dean has refereed
24 – Total penalties he has awarded in those Man U matches (16 for United, 8 for the opposition)
33 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty in a Chelsea match
47 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty in a Man U match
16 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty in an Arsenal match
5 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty for Arsenal in an Arsenal match
31 – Percent chance Mike Dean will award a penalty for Man U in a Man U match
31 – Percent chance Mike Dean will award a penalty in any match he has ever refereed
20 – Percent chance that Howard Webb would award a penalty in any match he had ever refereed
23 – Percent chance that Howard Webb would award a penalty in an Arsenal match
5 – Percent chance that Howard Webb would award Arsenal a penalty in an Arsenal match
24 – Percent chance that Mark Clattenburg will award a penalty in any match he has ever refereed
29 – Percent chance that Clattenburg would award a penalty in any Arsenal match he has ever refereed
100 – Percent chance that if Clattenburg awards a penalty, it will be for Arsenal¹
@7amkickoff
Sources: match info, whoscored.com; shots info, Espn.com; referee info, transfermarkt.com
¹Clattenburg has refereed 34 Arsenal matches and awarded 10 penalties; all of them have been given to Arsenal. All referee data from Transfermarkt.co.uk. “Percent chance” is not meant to express true probability but rather simply the number of penalties divided by the number of games played. 7amkickoff is not responsible for errors on Transfermarkt. Your memory may vary. Prices and availability subject to change. This product not sold in stores. Act now. Three easy payments. Limited supplies.
Mike Dean…
Him again…
(Starts to sharpen arrows…)
the non-call on Chambers in the box still has me baffled.
Gotta love 733amkickoff
Incidentally, we all should vote for Smithy for FIFA president. Listen to his views on Tottenham http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p03jn7k0/smithy-runs-for-fifa-president-sport-relief-special
Sorry for upsetting you, all you Spurs fans.
I love the build up in your stats, 7AM. As always.
Mike Dean is a 100% cunt
So basically mike dean hates Arsenal and clattenburg loves them. So ‘evens itself out over a season’ is probably true?
Clattenburg isn’t good to us this season.
He was some years back, but not now.
Only thing I’m glad about is he didn’t give koscielny second yellow. He would have missed next week against United.
Maybe it slipped his mind at that moment and now he is kicking himself!
We were denied 3 penalty claims. The handball on I think it was chambers effort, then a foul on him in the area later and the foul on Welbeck earlier when he was squeezed off it by two players sandwiching him. It’s sad that referees are still allowed this much influence in the modern game. Would it kill the game to have a couple of seconds to review contentious moments with video footage to make the best informed decision possible? There should be no reason for me to know Mike Deans name, he shouldn’t be a relevant factor in the… Read more »
the one on welbeck was really nothing, he stumbled in his own feet. The other two was as clear cut as they come.
I’ve always like Clattenberg
His ‘numbers’ with us are getting worse.
I guess he’s trying to ‘get in’ with Mike Riley…..
Yep, always thought Clattenburg and Michael Oliver to be way ahead of the rest of the refs. Dean is just beyond words at this stage.
I like Michael Oliver
I hate Michael Owen
I also have a lot of time for Michael Oliver. Best ref in the league at the moment in my most humble opinion
Interesting that we haven’t had Michael Oliver ref a game for us in a while.
Always great and interesting. Grateful to read and ponder.
Don’t know if it’s possible, but might be interesting to do referee stats by style of team play as opposed to team name. Some refs, who look totally team biased, might just call a style of play differently. Hate to sound reasonable … hate Dean as much as the next guy, until proven otherwise.
So you’re suggesting a penalty isn’t actually a penalty… Interesting.
Fantastic reading, thanks @7amkickoff
Boring
Unlike your great input here..
100 – Percent chance I’m not the only one that wants to smack Dean’s mug on sight.
That campaign to stop him reffing AFC games got to over 100,000 very close to action being taken.
The man is full of his own self importance which is not good for the game.
Still hopefully technology will soon stop refs like him make consistently bad decisions
Fans should not be able to dictate who referees a game. I’m no fan of Mike Dean, but that petition was toe-curling.
If the people “in charge” don’t giva a shit then I salute the effort from the fans. It’s not that fans should pick the ref but if you have someone as poor and biased as Mike Dean and nothing happens then the power of the people is needed.
I thought the petition was fairly pointless and if anything would backfire on us, but signed it anyway. We are at the point where what else are Arsenal fans supposed to do? Referees are meant to officiate a game strictly according to the rules and without bias. There is a significant (and growing) body of circumstantial evidence that Mike Dean does none of these things. The football authorities (PGMO/PL/FA) are meant to administer the referees in an transparent and even fashion, to ensure that the officials do their job properly. That hasn’t been happening for years. The media are meant… Read more »
It’s not who referees the game, I’d take anyone that’s fair, it’s who doesn’t due to consistent and obvious bias against our team.
Using a ‘video ref’ as well will just mean twats like Mike Dean can fuck things up for us from a different seat…
Referees in this sport should retire and be replaced with robots. I don’t see any usefulness from them compared to other sports.
That wouldn’t work at all, there is a lot of judgement that needs to be done, how much contact is necessary to justify a foul, how much you let go, how deliberate a handball is, things that you need humans to decide.
Now, giving them a replay within seconds of the incident to double check big decisions, that wouldn’t be an issue.
To be fair we all look at the match from our comfortable seats whether they are in the stadium or the pub or in our front room, we then make our decisions about whether the ref is right or wrong.
Maybe we should try making those decisions whilst running around with a whistle completely knackered and the crowd giving you stick..
It must be tough!
As said above, we should give them the videos we watch then. But no, Platini didn’t want it…
These guys are supposedly professional officials who get pretty well paid for this work. They should have a proper review system where a retired ref (and unbias to the 2 competing clubs) reviews the video and reports on the refs acuracy. A poor scoring ref should get less games and less money. A ref with odd results should be investigated for match fixing/gambling (not to say they are but it’s a possibility) and someone with Mike Deans stats should be sacked. There’s Lots more they can do, including video refs for certain parts of the game, but that would be… Read more »
100 – Percent chance Mike Dean is a cunt.
Mike Dean’s bias against Hull is clear. Arsenal had 12 corners to their 1.
33 – Percent chance that Dean will award a penalty in a Tottenham match
50 – Percent chance that penalty will be awarded to Tottenham
My point with Dean is that for some inexplicable reason, this referee who typically LOVES to award penalties suddenly swallows the whistle in Arsenal matches. It’s also strange that Webb has the same stats.
And Webb appoints the referees…………
So we probably won’t get Michael Oliver reffing our match at Old Trafford
What were Mike Rileys stats?
Maybe they know that’s the only way to do well at the PGMO.
Yes it is odd because I generally think Webb does a good job and Dean doesn’t
Or rather did do a good job
Hi Tim,
I have a stat request:
Is there any way you can measure the time(seconds) spent on the ball per player.
If so, please tell the seconds per pass that Gibbs takes and the same stat for Monreal as well.
Thanks.
And he is half bald too…
The unfortunate issue with statistics (which I do love) is that they do need translating as they lack the colour of the specific circumstances although they often give you the clues. For instance; Firstly, the number of turnovers against Welbeck and Walcot does not indicate that they were careless and played badly rather that they were being asked to penetrate a penalty area stacked full with well positioned Hull defenders because the service they received was slow and predictable. Secondly, Mike Dean is a cunt. But why? Because actually he really is a cunt, or because he is paid in… Read more »
He wakes up silly..goes to bed a cunt. What a life Mike Dean has. He’s so composed at being what he is that he frightens me. Prick
Other than the hate on Mike Dean, the stats of the midfield pairing of El Neneny and Chambers look impressive. I’d like to see some defensive stats of them and soon against a stronger opponent.