Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Watford 1-3 Arsenal: By the Numbers

Penalties

There is a widely held perception among Gooners that Arsenal don’t get the benefit of penalty calls in Premier League play. This belief is borne from the fact that between August 2008 and May 2014 Arsenal were awarded 27 penalties and conceded 36 while none of their top six rivals even come close to having such a poor record.

Penalties from 2008-2014 (League play only) Awarded Conceded Difference
Chelsea 45 17 28
Man U 39 18 21
Man City 42 21 21
Liverpool 39 26 13
Tottenham 24 28 -4
Arsenal 27 36 -9

*Source: MyFootballFacts

2014-15 saw a mini-renaissance for Arsenal and they won 7 penalties in the League while only conceding 3 but those numbers were quickly brought back down the next season when Arsenal were awarded just 2 penalties and their opponents 1.

So far, Arsenal have won 2 penalties this season. Equalling last season’s total.

It is also good to see Santi back taking penalties. The last season’s only League penalty winner was Olivier Giroud. In the 2014-15 season, Santi Cazorla took on penalty duties and he scored 6 of 6.

This isn’t a complaint

Arsenal struggled to control the game when they were in possession after they scored their third goal. That seems like a normal thing to say, since we were in the lead we can afford to concede a bit of possession and hit them on the counter, but it was that lack of control which turned an otherwise easy match into a nail-biter.

Teams approach leads in many different ways but one strategy that seems to be emerging at Arsenal is that Wenger wants the team to play more conservative after taking the lead. This approach is one that most Arsenal supporters would agree with but conceding possession the way that we did and so deep, does mean that the Arsenal defense must weather a huge barrage of shots.  Let me show you in stats.

First half Arsenal Watford
Passes 250 134
Final 1/3 Passes 64 34
Penalty box passes 8 5
Shots 7 4
Shots on Goal 6 0
Clearances (defensive) 5 6
Fouls 3 7

Source: 442 App

Arsenal dominated the first half, passing the ball at an 88% rate and getting six shots on target, including the penalty. With the two big chances Arsenal scored both, Ozil’s header and Cazorla’s penalty.

Second half Arsenal Watford
Passes 162 174
Final 1/3 Passes 33 52
Penalty box passes 3 8
Shots 3 10
Shots on Goal 1 6
Clearances (defensive) 21 4
Fouls 12 11

Source: 442 app

But in the second half, Arsenal made just 80% of their passes and most important, struggled in the Watford final third making just 33/60 passes and creating only three shots, all from distance.

More important, you can see the pressure Arsenal were under. The Gunners were forced to make 21 clearances in the second half and the game got a lot more chippy with both teams making over 11 fouls each. Also, Cech had to make 6 saves in the second half.

Why does this matter? Generally, you don’t want the opposition taking shots. In order to do that, you either need to control the ball or space. In the second half, I think it’s clear that Arsenal struggled with both: lacking penetration and ball control and giving up shots deep in the Arsenal defense. This could be down to Wenger trying to implement a new system

This could be down to Wenger trying to implement a new system. As I have been saying all summer, since he went for Vardy, it looks like Arsene wants to maximize Ozil’s gifts and create a team which can exploit space on the counter. Arsenal were the worst counter attacking team in the League last season, scoring just 3 times on counter attacks. Arsenal’s new signing, Lucas Perez, scored 4 counter attacking goals alone. So, it makes sense that Wenger wants to improve this area.

In order to do that, however, Wenger needs to get the team pressing and winning the ball back when they don’t have possession. We can’t rely on Cech to make 6 saves a night. It’s still early in the season and fitness is probably playing a big part, but Arsenal rode their luck a bit in the second half rather than proactively winning the ball back.

Also, credit to Watford, they have a decent team and Deeny and Ighalo put in a shift. Especially in the second half.

Errors on errors

Xhaka showed a wide range of skills on the day. He led Arsenal in total passes. He had 5 ball recoveries (Walcott led Arsenal with 6!). He was 6/9 with long passes, including a key pass long ball that also counted as a through ball. He was only dispossessed once. He made 3 of 4 clearances. He had 2 interceptions. And he had 4/7 tackles. But he was also credited with an error that led to a goal.

If you remember the sequence, Koz tried to clear the cross but the ball bounced off Cazorla. The ricochet fell to Capoue who hit Koz with his shot. The shot hit Koz so hard that the rebound hit Bellerin and went back to the penalty spot. When the ball finally fell to Granit, he tried to kick it clear but Pereya just made a good tackle and Granit ended up kicking the back of Pereya’s leg.

So, was that an error? Opta credited him with an error.

@7amkickoff

Sources: Opta, MyFootballFacts

Qq

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Charlie George

Great analysis as always, thanks. Is this the season that we start getting balanced decisions from the referees? Wait till we’ve had Mike Dean in charge or in the referee’s ear, he is poison for us. We have 4 weeks before the Chelsea match, so need to be settled and buzzing by then as they looked good today. Though Southampton is the next match and they have been a bogey team for us recently. We have lots of team depth now and good back-up in each position so I’m reasonably optimistic, especially if the referees are neutral and our new… Read more »

Mootilated

Not to play devils advocate or anything but wouldn’t better teams be awarded more penalties considering they create more chances?

ArsenalRising

Not really! Well yes but that’s the thing!!! No team spends more time in the final 3rd and opponents box than Arsenal! I could probably name 50 CLEAR CUT Penalties we should of had but honestly the refs are terrible with us! I’m convinced that it’s down to them thinking because 95% of the time we are the better team that refs feel sorry for the opposition! How many times have you seen it all Arsenal then the other team have 1 shot to 18/20 and they win by that goal or draw in the final mins!!! It is all… Read more »

ArsenalRising

Just read that back.. I meant 50 odd Penalties in the past 2/3 seasons! Just in case you thought I meant just in this game!

JonWill

No team created more chances than Arsenal last season though.

Anyway, referees seem to be a little more loose with the penalties this season, and we have benefitted once (against Leicester of all teams). Hopefully, there is no such thing as Karma in football, and if there is, I hope it does not come back to bite us in the ass.

StuckInTheWire

I hope there is karma, because rather than bite us in the arse, given what we’ve suffered already in recent years we are due about 40 dodgy penalties this season.

Pearson

“No team created more chances than Arsenal last season though.”
Hopefully Lucas Perez (and Theo Walcott) will sort that out.
Walcott missed more goals than Bendtner last season after a stellar half season before that, I hope he gets 26+ goals this season, we deserve it

Mootilated

Oh and also, I would like to see the Pereyra goal again because if I am not mistaken he actually fouls Xhaka before taking the shot.

Crash Fistfight

I thought that at the time, but after watching the reply (which still wasn’t 100% conclusive) I think he got to the ball in front of Xhaka. Xhaka went to kick it, realised if he went through with his kick he’d take out Pereyra, so stopped the action part way through.

In the end I think it was fair, but it would have been a lot more comfortable for the remaining 35 mins if someone had cleared that ball!

gooner

Is it possible that our players were just tired in the second half? and on dead legs you tend to lose possession and space more and more to your opponent. If we were trying to play on counter, the first thing has to be secure our midfield(make it more compact).

Dr. Gooner

We lost a bit of impetus after understandably curbing our enthusiasm a bit, being 3-0 up, and they gained confidence after their goal and in front of the home fans. From there it was tough to retain possession because they squeezed high and were very physical and committed to winning challenges. Ozil and Cazorla are lovely players but in that situation you need a some size and grit in midfield to match them for winning duels and regain control. Good thing we have El-neny or Coquelin to call on when we need a scrapper.

Granit(e) hard!

I am inclined to agree with you. I think fitness wise, we are not completely there yet and imo, this could be one of the major reasons why we have been experiencing ” a tale of two halves” as the pundits are calling it. Also, Arsenal way of playing requires complete fluidity in the forward lines and some times, in midfield, which require constant movement from players which can be more physically demanding compared to positionally static systems. For example In the Liverpool game, we completely outplayed Liverpool in the first 40 mins and then our intensity dropped as we… Read more »

Now fit Gooner

Wow, well said Sir! I haven’t seen any of the games, and from what I’v read, what you’ve said sums it all up nicely. What I’v noticed is that we’ve dropped a lot of points just after being knocked out of the Champion’s League, later on in the season when we’re “known” to implode. I’m keeping a close “eye” on how we’ve gotten rid of the dead-wood and how we’ve replaced older players with similar younger players. Also interesting is how we don’t have half the squad injured with medium to long term injuries, and even then, we hear news… Read more »

ArseHobbit

So what you’re saying is this could be down to Wenger trying to implement a new system?

Stillmatic

I believe we are trying to maybe improve our countering. Xhaka’s pinging from deep and Ozil likely to perform better and through ball more (his best passing, something we don’t see that often from him when Giroud is playing) with Perez is an indicator that there is evidence for opportunities to score more counters.

But fook me, we gotta do better pressing.

Frog

I’ve got a number for you:

1

There’s only one Arsene Wenger!!!!!

Drew Tschappat

Can we give Ox the error for Watford’s goal instead? Seems like not tracking back and letting a 3 v 1 breakdown on your side is a little more egregious than you know, actually trying to defend inside the box and having a game of pinball occur and unluckily not be able to make a tackle… But that’s just one man’s opinion.

COYG1001

Needed, and got, that big result today!

Loved that midfield there today, and love that there’s so much room for competition and rotation.

Back 4 aside, we are ridiculously deep! Loving it.

Olawale Olayemi

Even back four included. We’re just injured is all

Matt

Walcott seems to be feeling Perez’ breath on his neck and decided to work more for the team. Good thing

MrBure

After the Eduardo “diving scandal”, Arsenal actually went an entire season and half without being awarded a single penalty at home. No matter how blatant the offence, the refs waved “play on”. This included that play in which Arshavin was poised to take a shot in the box, got pushed in the back by a diving Titus Bramble, and a goal kick was awarded.

It was a period in which Stoke City got more penalties at the Brittania Stadium than we did. If that isn’t clear evidence of organised refereeing bias, I don’t know what qualifies.

ger

Has anyone copped that we have 7 games between the 10th Sept to the 2nd Oct?

Tim

17 – Angry Gooners at the pub here in Cape Town trying to figure out what absolute bullshit this new “Goalrush” TV split screen is about. I don’t know if it is the case wherever you’re reading from, but every time another game has a moderately decent chance then it interrupted the Arsenal game.

Clay

It irritated me. I am going back to streaming.

Blitz Bailey

Seems unlikely that second half was according to plan the way it played out. We we’re lucky not to concede more goals and they penetrated our defence way to easily making Cech Man of the match for me with some great saves. Cant be giving away that many shots vs Watford, Aguero and Ibrahimovic etc would score those chances, so if second half was a part of the plan, then please stop it. Bad bad tactics 😛

Anyways, feels good to win, excited to see the new signings in Action.

Steve Bould

Pereya’s ‘tackle’ on Xhaka was a foul. The ball wasn’t within playing distance, which is why he could only move across Xhaka to block his clearance before taking a touch himself and shooting. Premier league referees let those challenges go too often.

From a bitter defender sick of strikers always getting away with those challenges! ;o)

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