ARSENAL 3–0 BOURNEMOUTH: BY THE VISUALS
ARSENAL 3–0 BOURNEMOUTH: BY THE NUMBERS
The destiny of the title is beyond our control. While all Manchester City need to do is keep winning, our task remains clear: win our remaining fixtures, starting with Bournemouth, and hope for them to drop points.
Since October, only the current top four teams have accumulated more points than opponents Bournemouth, indicating that the fixture had the potential to be a banana skin. But unlike last season’s match, when The Cherries took the lead inside 10 seconds, Arsenal dominated from the start.
1 – Shot for Bournemouth (0.03 xG) during the first half, which came in the very first minute from a set-piece that was initially cleared by Gabriel.
15 – Shots for Arsenal before we finally scored in the 45th minute, as Saka converted from the penalty spot after Travers was adjudged to have brought down Havertz.
However, before the penalty was scored, there were moments when you began to wonder if it was going to be one of those days as we missed a number of decent opportunities.
1.18 – Non-penalty expected goals for Arsenal during the first 45 minutes.
If there was any doubt about the VAR-checked penalty being given, there was no doubt about which team was better going into the break. Arsenal had more shots (16), more shots on target (5), and recorded a higher xG (1.97) than we’ve seen during the first half of a Premier League game at the Emirates all season.
We doubled our lead in the 70th minute after Declan Rice seized a loose ball on the edge of the Bournemouth box and passed it to Trossard, who finished well (0.13 xG) and put any of the growing nerves at ease.
VAR upheld the on-field decision to rule out a potential Antoine Semenyo effort, as Solanke was deemed to have impeded Raya in the build-up.
Then late into injury time, Rice practically ran the length of the pitch to receive a pass from Jesus and hammered it in from a tight angle (0.12 xG) to make it three.
25 – Shots for Arsenal, the joint fourth-most we’ve registered so far this season.
10 – Starters for Arsenal who attempted a shot against Bournemouth.
88 – Premier League goals for Arsenal this season, equaling our best ever in the Premier League (2022-23). The last time we scored more in a season was 90 in 1963-64.
+60 – Goal difference for Arsenal so far this season, the best in the club’s history in top-flight football after 36 games played.
108 – Touches in the opposition box across our last two Premier League home games: 54 against Bournemouth and 54 against Chelsea.
12 – Touches in the opposition box for Bukayo Saka. More than the entire Bournemouth team managed combined (10).
15 – Clean sheets for David Raya, making him the outright winner of the Premier League’s Golden Glove. Despite missing six league games this season, with two games still to go.
DECLAN RICE’S GAME BY NUMBERS
61 touches, 45 out of 52 passes completed, seven touches in the opposition area, seven possessions won, five progressive carries, three chances created, three duels won, seven recoveries, three shots, two take-ons completed, two interceptions, one goal, one assist and two pitch-length runs that resulted in Arsenal goals.
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26 – Wins for Arsenal this season, matching last season’s record with two games still to play.
In all honesty, we dominated the game from start to finish, but our missed chances made it feel a bit nervy at times. Our next match against Manchester United is crucial; a win would at least put pressure on City, who now face three matches in eight days, two of them away in London.
Follow me on Twitter @jonollington
Sources: Opta, fbref, @Orbinho twitter feed
Winning
Interesting how Zinchenko is still so high up our charts for progressive passes AND tackles (not something he’s especially known for) considering it feels like he’s only played about half the season at most. Shows there’s maybe still more to him than most of his critics might believe…
Rice and Odegaard though, what a luxury pair of midfielders, and complement each other’s strengths so perfectly.
I see us carry this form into next season…and obliterate anything on our way to the league title, either as defending champions or third time lucky.
It’s hard to believe Havertz’s passing didn’t increase the chances of scoring. I know he’s a forward and does a lot of little layoffs and passes backward, but he also released people in the penalty area a few times and helped us establish control in their half with his strength and knack for finding space. I thought he had a great game.
I absolutely agree. Havertz was fantastic. The main issue with any possession-based value metric is its assumption that all actions from and to zones carry equal weight regardless of context. Perhaps an even bigger problem is the assumption that all actions within possessions should generate a value. Havertz’s performance over the weekend highlights some of the issues using a static grid, but it’s a decent guide nonetheless.
is that how it’s calculated, a static grid and whether the pass went forwards or backwards or sideways closer or away from the goal? If so it seems there’s still a lot of progress to be made on that front…
The model behind Expected Threat is a lot more complex, but that is essentially what I’m calculating. Tom Worville wrote a very good piece about its effectiveness in The Athletic a while back that is well worth a read if you can access it.
Of course anything could happen, but I cannot worry about Man U, given they just lost 4-0 to Palace.
Right, anything can happen. But if they play like they did today–and again without Fernandes and Rashford–we will put eight past them. They need a new manager. I hear David Moyes is available.
Odd that, despite silly season being well and truly underway, there’s a strange silence where you’d expect lengthy articles about managers elsewhere who are on the shortlist/definitely taking the job/rumoured to be interested/have been approached etc.
You’d almost think they were sticking with Ten Hag. I do hope so, he’s been great so far.
These Ten Hags are the best thing that’s ever happened to Manure, long may they enjoy each others company.
Ten Hag thinks Ten Hag is the best man to turn it around so I would just go with that if I were them.
First time commenting but I want to jump on and mention something I’ve been seeing most if not all season that I don’t think I’ve seen mentioned elsewhere. Havertz’s “all open play passes received” box is almost always huge. Even before his recent run of stellar form back when the narrative around him was highly contested he was notching great numbers, if I recall correctly. Go back and have a look through previous By The Numbers to see what I mean. His movement and positioning has been increasing our chances of scoring for a long time, and his end product… Read more »
I love the chemistry on the right between Saka, Odegard, and Ben White. All 3 players can cause damage and our opponents know it. We should try and build a similar relationship down the left with Martinelli/Trossard, Havertz, and our left back. WE need a left back with the same quality as Ben White. Tomi is great, but he is more defensive minded like Kiwior. Zinchenko is ok going forward, but his defending is questionable. I think if we get a left back that can overlap will bring the best out of Martinelli/Trossard and give them more options. Martinelli is… Read more »
We have one – Timber.