Tale of Two Halves
Arsenal took zero shots in the first half. The last time they had zero shots in a League game was against Liverpool in 2004. Arsenal lost that match 2-1.
It was such utter domination in that first half that United had 81 passes in Arsenal’s final third and Arsenal only managed 18 in the United final third. That’s 81-18, which might make an interesting concept album for Rush but isn’t the kind of stat that you want to see from a team that has aspirations for a title challenge.
United dominated by swarming the Arsenal midfielders whenever they got the ball and aggressively tackling the ball away. United finished the first half with 18/22 tackles (limiting Arsenal to 4/12 dribbles) and they only average 27.5 tackles per game this season. They also filled the passing lanes, so that when Arsenal had the ball and tried to play a pass, United were there to intercept, picking off 13 Arsenal passes despite the Gunners only managing 38% of the possession (remember possession stats are basically just passing stats). Alexis Sanchez was the most targeted of the midfielders and he gave the ball up an astonishing 6 times and managed to complete just 6/10 passes in 45 minutes of play.
Wenger claims that Arsenal got back into the game in the second half and I suppose there is an argument for that. Arsenal took 5 shots in the second half, got three on target and created two “big chances”. One of those big chances fell to Giroud who could only toe-poke into de Gea’s legs. If only Giroud’s boot were tighter, or maybe looser, Arsenal could have equalized earlier. Alexis also got better in the second half, only coughing up the ball once and getting off two shots.
What I can’t explain statistically is how the game opened up after Coquelin was moved to right back and Ramsey to center mid. Coquelin had a good game, completing all but 1 of his 33 passes, was 2/2 dribbling, and made 6 interceptions and 2/3 tackles but it looked like United just ignored him for the most part (they did force 4 turnovers which is atrocious for a CM). And Ramsey did create a chance for a teammate and also had 3/4 dribbles in his role in CM. And also, Arsenal scored and finally got some shots off.
Also, one of Arsenal’s main attacks this season is dribbling, the Gunners blow everyone away averaging 26 a game (next best is Newcastle with 21). That dribble attack opens their game up and after managing a paltry 4/12 in the first half, they went 14/24 in the second half. Much better.
Still, I’m having a hard time heaping praise on a second half performance that hinged on an own goal from a cross-cum-shot. Arsenal’s 5 shots is the lowest shot total of the season in League play. And no, Opta don’t count Theo Walcott’s pass as a shot.
Oh, did I mention that United finished the game 37/55 tackles? That’s almost double their season average. They kept the pressure on for the full game and might even feel a bit unlucky to walk away with just a point. I would if Arsenal played the way United played, at home, and got a draw because of an own goal.
One last weird fact: Man U are the third most error-prone defense in the League with 29 total errors. But United are also the second best team in the League in total number of errors leading to a goal with just 3. I suspect much of the reason for that is David de Gea who was outstanding this season. I think we had further evidence to support that theory when Valdes came on, United made an error, and Arsenal scored.
Defense
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: in the 13 games since the loss to Monaco Arsenal have allowed only 8 goals in all competitions but 7 of the 8 have been scored off crosses (the 8th was a penalty).
It’s a strange stat because on the one hand, Arsenal’s defense has been very good and should be applauded: any time you can concede just 8 goals in a run of 13 games against big teams like Chelsea, Man U and (former greats) Liverpool you have to give the defense credit. But on the other hand this was a weakness early in the season as well and Arsenal allowed 18 goals off crosses or corners. But that was out of 42 goals conceded in all competitions. So, despite shoring up the spine of the team there is still this one vulnerability and it’s so glaring that if you look straight at it you’ll go blind, like Jack Burton went blind looking at 7 foot tall Lo Pan with lights coming out of his eyes.
It’s not that any one side is particularly more vulnerable than the other in these last 13 games, 4 came from the left, 2 were from the right and the Reading goal was mostly center right. But it was clear that United targeted that as a vulnerability and scored a well worked ball from the left when Young crossed for Herrera at the far post and the Spaniard stroked home beautifully.
Top 6 — have Arsenal improved?
Have Arsenal improved? Yes, in terms of the top six Arsenal have improved but by dint of goal difference only. Here is the table for last season’s so-called mini-league:
And this season:
This season Arsenal won 1 fewer games against top teams and lost 1 fewer drawing two more than last season. Basically, Arsenal beat Man City and lost to Tottenham away. Then let Man U boss us twice in the League.
Arsenal’s record against the bottom 10 teams is insanely good and has been for two years: 33 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss. But if Arsenal want to challenge for the League title they have to keep beating those bottom 10 teams and win more points against teams in the top half of the table, not just mini-League teams. Against top 10 teams Arsenal only average 1.17 PPG. Chelsea won the League averaging 2.06 against those same teams. This includes Swansea, Southampton, and Stoke, three terrible defeats this season that need to be reversed if the Gunners want to win the ultimate prize.
Stats today via: Opta, Statto, and the 7amkickoff Index
I love all your stats etc especially about top 6 and the rest . I put forward this stat
If you exclude the top6 , that means we play 14 teams twice ie 28 games if you win all of these that means 84 points throw in the odd draw against the other top 5 say 6 points 90 point youve won the league
In theory it would work with out beating any of the top 5 teams.
Arsenal looked very nervous on the ball yesterday and uniteds high pressure didn’t help,wilshere coming on changed the game because of his driving runs from midfield,heres hoping the lad can stay fit next season
Loved the “Big Trouble in Little China” reference.
Also, since it’s Southampton, Stoke, and Swansea (2), shouldn’t that be 4 terrible defeats?
Win these matches and we would have been a point behind Chelsea. Then Wenger needs to get over the Mou factor or at least try not to lose at the Bridge after which goal difference comes into play. Wenger’s desire for a 15-goal player makes sense. I reckon Ramsey, Walcott, Ozil and Welbeck should take care of that. There you go, we’ve won the title. 😀
I guess another factor that stats won’t reflect is one touched upon by Souness (I think). Utd were crowding us whenever we got the ball in the first half. But that’s a high intensity tactic, one that was impossible to maintain as the game wore on as legs got tired and Utd began to retreat into a defensive mode. I think that’s when we began to get in the game more. We got a lot more breathing space and tired legs meant more spaces to exploit. That does show that that’s one area we need to improve on. High pressure… Read more »
You would have thought with quality dribblers and ‘space-finders’ like Ozil and Cazorla, we could have countered that. Both of them were not at their best.
Its hard to counter when you have the world’s slowest striker, a CM playing on the wing and even Sanchez lost a race with Phil ducking Jones!
I’m almost 20 years old and I still giggle at cross-cum-shot
Don’t worry mate, I’m 34 and I piss myself laughing about it.
I’m in my 40s and it makes me laugh as well. It’s even more hilarious when you hear it in the mouth of a pundit who is blissfully ignorant of the double entendre. It makes them sound even more painfully stupid than they already are.
Love Coquelin, but it look like United had a tactical plan to bypass him when he had the ball, believing his passing wouldn’t cause us much trouble and just man-marked his nearest players that usually passes to (Santi). That the problem with statistics (or to be more precise, quantitative analysis); doesn’t quantify creativity. I think you should follow these articles with some qualitative match analysis, which would’ve revealed that Francis’s passing was unambitious and rarely a worry to United. When people say stats don’t tell the whole story, they’re half right. What they really mean is quantitative statistics doesn’t tell… Read more »
Sorry, but this is wrong. Statistics are *by definition* quantitative data. Statistical analysis is the analysis of quantitative data, usually to support or disprove a theory or to illustrate an argument. I agree, they often don’t tell the whole story (though sometimes they do just that); and qualitative analysis is another technique sometimes used by researchers to support an argument, though usually it’s more reliably used to investigate a situation to determine what theories should be tested by statistics. I fail to understand how *qualitative* analysis would reveal that Coquelin’s passing was unambitious, without some statistics to back up the… Read more »
1. Your right on my use of the words “statistics” which is by virtue, quantitative in definition. I knew that as I was typing but couldn’t be arced to change it and hoped no one would call me out on it. Good job. 2. That is a whole topic altogether beyond the scope of this place. Be issue has been a general devaluation of qualitative analysis in science, based on the motion that they are, or can be subjective in nature, and the general issue I have that there is no truth in subjectivity (after all, science is about finding… Read more »
I really hate typing on my tablet. So many grammatical errors and autocorrect changes I never asked for. I ant even type the word “arsed” without the damn thing changing it….. and that’s on a site called arseblog.
I gave you a thumbs up, btw.
Thanks for the response (though I can’t say I understood it very clearly) and for the thumbs up. I didn’t, incidentally, give your original comment either a thumb up or a thumb down. I thought you were making a valid point, albeit rather badly.
But yout say this is a topic “altogether beyond the scope of this place”. I’d have thought a series of articles entitled “by the numbers” was absolutely the right place for this discussion.
I don’t think an article series called “by the numbers” which is meant to discuss statistical data from the most recent arsenal game, is the place to discuss the philosophical virtues and ideals of science and it’s quest for truths and the validity of qualitative and quantitative analysis.
I don’t think you disagree with that, surely?
Never liked Rush. Just gross music.
That’s not the spirit!
Sorry, Paul. Would it help if I said I love Canadians? I do.
I also love maple syrup, The Tragically Hip, and William Shatner.
But not Rush. Never Rush.
Good news everyone, Our Gracious Lord, Michel Platini has announced that UEFA will be relaxing the FFP laws. Sheikhs and oligarchs are rejoicing that they no longer have to hire armies of lawyers and accountants to dodge the minor inconvenience that was FFP. Let us all praise Michel Platini.
OT : or i missed it (then i’m sorry) or this is truly a pity you didn’t do this article for Arsenal – Chelsea and especially Özil vs Fabregas…. it wouldn’t have been in Dear Cesch’s favour…. maybe that’s why i didn’t see it…
What i can fathomed from the game(I’m not a coach anyway)was that Van gaal probably must have instructed his players not to give arsenal any breathing space,by so doing, we will err and so we did and they scored. However, manure were poor: with all their aggressive pressing could just scored a goal. This coincided with ineffectiveness of Ramsey on the wing but when arsenal got their breath, manure almost lost the match. I think a sharp striker would’ve nailed them there. We were crap, yes! So they were when they came to the emirate and won, so manure were… Read more »
I bet Santi’s stats would have been well ‘out of character’ yesterday and make for interesting reading.
Given arsene’s mention of a 15 goal player I wonder if a cheeky Charlie Austin bid might be in the works
I think it’s entirely more likely that Charlie Austin is set to replace Rickie Lambert as the next striker to be ruined by Brenda Rodgers.
Sorry but United most certainly didn’t boss us at home. Only poor finishing got them the result that day.
I’ve been saying all along Giroud is not good enough and getting downrated to hell. Hopefully some people are at least now coming to the same conclusion.
(ò_ó) – van gaal’s face when the away fans sang QUE SERA SERA! WHATEVER WILL BE WILL BE! WE’RE GOING TO WEM-BER-LY during his speech
Watching the game tonight whilst joyous as the chavs are losing is also hard to stomach.
The chavs realls do have more twats in there team than any other team on the planet…and while we all know what john terry is, Diego Costa really is an odious dirty man.
Interesting stats but what I found most interesting was, that after a shocking first half, we didn’t let our heads drop, turned it up a couple of gears, equalised, got the result we needed and nearly won it!
Thanks for the stats though.
COYG!
1: Silly Anti-Cesc. This has to be the most bathetic end to a PL season that I can remember. Comedy gold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcxSKMDkG0U
lets get a draw today and lose the next match. Manure are going to strangle themselves
i dont wanna say…but dint i say it?