When Wenger dreams of football, like Jiro Dreams of Sushi, it is inevitably a dream about perfect football gems served up in bite sized chunks to the public: the opponent playing a high line against his speedy forwards when Arsenal don’t have the ball, the opposition not particularly getting stuck in against his team when they do have the ball, the opponent limited to pot shots from distance when they get close enough to goal to have a shot, his team walking the ball in and getting shots in front of goal, and for his team to exploit the space and freedom given by the opponent on counter attacks. If Jiro Dreams of Sushi and Wenger Dreams of Football this was a three Michelin Star meal served up pitch side in Leicester.
Leicester’s high line was apparent from the start, when Theo Walcott was put through in the 3rd minute. Walcott was called offside but Leicester didn’t hear the warning. By full time, Leicester only attempted 358 passes, but 148 of them were in Arsenal’s final third: 41% of their total attempted passes. In contrast Arsenal played almost the same number of passes in the Leicester final third 157 but that was out of 537 total passes, 29% . Wenger was teasing them with an amuse-bouche in that first 3 minutes, but went on to serve a full meal of counter attacking football with goals from Walcott, Alexis, Alexis, and Giroud all build from snuffing out Leicester attacks.
Wenger has long been ridiculed for “trying to walk the ball in” but despite fan’s love of the long shot goal there are statistical reasons not to shoot from distance too much. It’s a very speculative shot, around 3% finishing rate. Which is exactly what makes those goals so special and why fans want to see them. But Wenger, playing the numbers, encourages his team to get chances inside the box where the conversion is much higher, 15%.
So, in Wenger’s dream, his team would shoot mostly inside the box and in reality they do: Arsenal have the most shots in the League from all positions (147) and most critically, they have 92 shots in the penalty area which also leads the League. But what’s astounding is that Arsenal took 22 shots inside the Leicester box today. That’s 24% of the season’s total. If shots are Wenger’s spice blend he has the perfect level of salt and pepper with all those shots in the box and just a dash of chili pepper with Alexis’ goal from 25 yards.
But the menu nearly backfired when Wenger sent out a burnt Flamini as the starter. In the first 83 minutes of the match Leicester only had 10 shots. 3 of those shots were what fans consider “big” shots: the Vardy goal, the header over the bar, and the Vardy shot that hit the post. All three of those shots came in the first 20 minutes with Flamini on the pitch.
Between the moment Flamini came off in the 20th minute and the 78th minute when Ox came on for Rambo, Leicester only had 4 total shots, all from outside the box where players score at about a 3% rate. It was Arteta, the waiter, coming on and shoring things up for Arsenal which allowed Wenger to serve his second, third, and fourth courses.
And what gems those courses were. We’ve all been waiting for Alexis to score and before this match he was 0/31 in League play which included an 0/5 record in big chance situations. The first goal was the very definition of a big chance: wide open in front of goal, ball lands softly at feet, no ‘keeper, just put it in. The second goal was recorded as a big chance but wow, what a ball from Özil and what determination from Sanchez to rise above Schmeichel to score.
But after the feast of goals a weird thing happened when Wenger trotted out the Ox. Maybe he was supposed to be the “wafer thin mint” on top of the delicious meal that Arsenal’s brigade had served up? Maybe Wenger threw him on to get a goal against a leaky Leicester defense? I don’t know, but I do know that from the 78th minute to the end of the game, Leicester took 6 shots: 2 in prime areas, 2 big chances (saved), 1 blocked, 1 regular shot saved, and scored 1 goal when Vardy wasn’t closed down by Mertesacker 10 yards from goal.
That last 15 minutes of the game was as poor a defensive performance as I’ve seen from an Arsenal team. If we keep the restaurant analogy going, it’s like Wenger had shut the doors, closed the kitchen, and just as he was ready to turn out the lights noticed that there was a table full of people. Luckily they didn’t demand a feast and were satisfied with just dessert.
Old School By the Numbers
10 – Number of goals Arsenal have scored this season
5 – Number of goals Arsenal scored in the first 6 games of the season
5 – Number of goals Arsenal scored today
2 – Number of those first five goals that were scored by Own Goal
18 – Number of “big chances” Arsenal have created this season¹
5 – Number of big chances Arsenal have scored this season
28 – Percent of big chances that Arsenal have converted this season
45 – Percent of big chances that Arsenal have converted in each of the last two seasons
7 – Big chances Arsenal’s defense has allowed the opposition to take this season
4 – Big chances that Petr Cech has saved this season
57 – Percent of Big chances that Cech is saving in this small, tiny, minuscule, Mourinho sized sample (SSS = Small Sample Size)
29 – Percent of big chances that Arsenal’s ‘keepers saved over the last two years
38 – Shots taken by Alexis Sanchez this season¹
3 – Goals scored by Alexis
7 – Percent of his shots he’s finishing so far this season (SSS)
13 – Percent of his shots he finished last year
596 – Passes made by Santi Cazorla this season¹
535 – Passes made by Fabregas this season (2nd in the League)
28 – Key passes made by Santi Cazorla this season¹
13 – Key passes made by Cesc Fabregas this season (2.8/game last season, 1.9/game this season)
27 – Key passes made by Özil this season
10 – Key passes made by Cazorla and Özil today³ (5 each)
116 – Key passes made by all of Arsenal this season¹
47 – Percent of Arsenal’s key passes made by Cazorla and Özil this season (55/116)
7 – Assists by Arsenal this season (tied with 5 teams for 5th)
93 – Successful dribbles by Arsenal this season¹
89 – Successful dribbles by Leicester this season (2nd best)
34 – Successful dribbles by Riyad Mahrez this season¹
9 – Successful dribbles by Mahrez today³ (of 12 attempted)
6 – Number of those Mahrez successful dribbles that were against Özil (of 8!)
0 – Mahrez successful tackles (of 5 — Mahrez was “dribbled past” 5 times and Özil 6 times)
20 – Successful dribbles by Alexis Sanchez this season (3rd best behind Hazard)
7 – Successful dribbles by Alexis Sanchez today (of 7 attempted)
35 – Percent of Alexis Sanchez’ successful dribbles for the season that he made in this one match! (Mahrez made 26% of his season’s dribbles today)
18 – Successful dribbles by Leicester today (Mahrez had 1/2)
75 – Number of times Arsenal have been dribbled past (Sunderland 1st, Man City 2nd, Arsenal 3rd, Chelsea 4th, Wham 5th, Leicester 6th… common theme? They all (except Sunderland) play open, attacking football)
24 – Percent of Arsenal’s ‘dribbled pasts’ which happened today
@7amkickoff
*I have a simple expected goals formula that I will publish soon
¹Leads the League
²Leads the Team
³Lead both teams on the day
In a spirit of generosity only ever fostered by a resounding victory against an unassuming opponent, may I just say how well taken Vardy’s two goals against us were today (also makes me feel better about having conceded them)?
those goals were a thing of beauty, as well as alexis 2 last goals
really appreciated the restaurant analogy Tim — delectable.
Somehow got the feeling that someone might have watched Jiro Dreams of Sushi lately (also recommend it to everyone reading this)
Also its promising that we actually started to score from the chances tonight, hopefully it will continue untill the end of season
Surprised by the Mahrez stat, thought he was anonymous today! Deep in Nacho’s pocket.
Yes, it seemed most of his activity was closer to the middle third, rarely getting into the box. That his dribbles were mostly against Ozil, not Nacho probably tells that story.
His dribbles were in non-dangerous areas mostly. He wasn’t beating Monreal with them, he was beating Ozil. Which isn’t nearly so dangerous.
cheers-
Wait, Chelsea play attacking football?! As in attacking the opposition’s players?
Chelsea playing attacking football makes as much sense as me shitting in a cap.
As an economist, this is my favourite article on any matchday we win! Ofcourse the converse will be true
whenever we lose. Really appreciate your good work mr. 7!
Couldn’t agree more. Love these articles. By the numbers is my favorite column anywhere on the Internet! Thanks so much for the hard work!
Wow.. thanks! Both of you, really.
I especially like this one with its mix of old and new styles.
Do you write any other stat based articles?
Yes, at 7amkickoff.com. But there it’s a free for all! I write what I want.
He writes want he wants, he writes what he wants, he’s 7am kickoff, he writes what he wants!
It’s we who should thank you really.. Imagine me publishing my daily work online for free. That would please none :]
I love the thought and intelligence that goes in. The only blog that comes close is
http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/arsenal-searching-for-hows-and-whys.html
with a similar emphasis on numbers, in his case financial. I’m not comparing, both are great.
I’m absolutely delighted how we exposed their high line. Not often are we allowed to hit teams on the counter like we could today. Even after we went behind I wasn’t too worried to be honest. We simply have too much quality and pace up front. What a wonderful day to be a Gooner!
Drinkwater the commentators kept saying, so I drank at least ‘4’ glasses
The best way to keep those balls sparkling, Crystal.
Chin chin.
Sanchez = Maradona without the “Hand Of God” (cos he IS God)
so now i gotta start following leicester games, found a new drinking game
He scores hattrick even off form
He is alexis,one of our own
At 4-1 we did look like we have shut the doors. If Ox wants to be a starter he also needs to put in a defensive shift no idea why he doesnt anymore. Twice after he came on he looked standing without any movement when opponent was just 10 yards ahead if him. The second goal that we conceded could have been avoided and again saw ox just standing there was no attempt to close down his opponent. Cech saved us like so many times but looked even he finally gave up to vardy go on lad have your second… Read more »
No mater the score, I am always attentive to the craft of each player….when Ox watched when help was clearly needed, I could only wonder how he is coached. I would like to see every player aim for their highest level of defensive capability whenever we are without the ball.
The best football column, in any newspaper, any website in the whole wide world. When I grow up I want to be 7amKickoff. BTW what inspired the name?
If i remember correctly, Tim stays in USA thus the kick-off time is 7am in the morning.
This is it. When I first started following Arsenal most games kicked off at 3pm GMT which is 7am my time!
Great result. I am still not convinced by the defence.The defenders were all ball watching when Leicester scored their 2nd goal. Even Cech was rooted to the spot. Against Mu it could be fatal. I maybe wrong but to me it seems the refs are doing all they can to prevent Chelsea/Arsenal and MC from winning the epl.Spurs scored their equalize r when a spud was in an offside position.They all want MU to win the crown. Had the goal not been given,MC could have gone on to win. No need to elaborate the Chelsea loss.In the Newcastle game,Hazard was… Read more »
I’m convinced.
Me too! Monreal, Koscielny, Mertesacker; Very convincing indeed.
Not another conspiracy theorist!
I like our Sanchez. His all action style shows what a dynamic player he is.I was afraid he could be a one season wonder.Class is permanent.I doubt Kane can score 25 plus goals this season with the greatest of respect. In the game against the rd,I hope Chamberlain can also play.Passing all over the pitch wont scare defenders. They are afraid of someone running at them running with the ball like Ronaldo.They will backtrack and have little time to react. Hopefully the gunners can beat the rd. Surely Wenger’s poor record against Mu has to stop at some point. Why… Read more »
The Ox’s lack of defensive commitment is worrying. He’s also still something of a maverick, in that you don’t ever quite know what you’re going to get from him. Plus if we don’t have le Coq in the team I’m not sure we can afford two players whose dribble-heavy playing styles can lead to a lot of turnovers, because without Coq we’re less well-equipped to win it back. Ox is a gamble whereas Ramsey is a safe option, and I think this team already has enough quality not to need a gamble.
Harry “my mouth is always hanging open” Kane doesn’t deserve “the greatest respect.”
Great writing. It’s a hard comparison, (imagine a wall street day being described as a children’s bedtime story), and lovely to read. Cheers, 7am.
Was so desperate for a thumping win! We finally have it Gonners!
I think the Ox may be suffering a little bit from a lack of confidence in his defensive abilities, which may stem from feeling like he’s unlucky when he tries to defend. He never used to shirk his defensive duties, but that sequence of high profile errors starting around the Monaco game appear to have shaken him somewhat. It just seems like every time he turns the ball over when he’s doing his defensive duties, he gets punished. It’s therefore not really surprising that he may have taken the view that if he’s not in there with his bad luck,… Read more »
On a personal level i think ozil was fantastic!!! he’s a beauty.. and don’t get me started on alexis sanchez, i mean my girl litteraly wet her pants when she saw his 3rd goal. What a beast!!!!!!!!! and can we keep bringing on giroud in the 80th minute? he seems to bring on his “A” game Whenever he steps on the the pitch 10-15minutes to go. And in another tottally unrelated note did anyone see mous assistant showing falcao an Atlas (a book that contains a map of every country & or continent on Earth) when he was about to… Read more »
Unrelated, but is it just me or does Walcott look more and more like Henry up front?
So what you are saying is that Ozil despite his attacking prowess needs to get stuck in abit more.
I have only one worry. Ozil cant score…..
Actually Mertesacker had a poor game. Partly in fault for both their goals (fully for their first goal): Took a very strange run forward to open up for Vardy. Then he did not close down on Vardy when he scored the second.
So, I don´t understand Arseblog´s rating on him for this game.
Please go and look at the goals Leicester scored. If you still disagree, please explain why.
Great read again. We played well without the Coq and that confidence is oozing out now but with the UCL midweek and The scum on the weekend lets see how The Gaffer sets his table for the next few meals
Hi all you boomers.
Great article full of bright thoughts and good calculations..it’s worthy a re-read at any moment.Well done Tim 7
The performance was incredible but am just disturbed by the fact that our defenders become so reluctant when we a goal up and with the nature of referees we have they need to be mindful esp against manure.
Hopefully LeCoq returns on good feet against manure.
Ozil will score just like Alexis did so lets keep playing well he might surprise us soon.
Good to be a goober.
Tim, could you define “big chance”?
It’s not my definition and I should have linked in the article: http://optasports.com/news-area/blog-optas-event-definitions/mbNewsContentTemplate
sorry a bit off topic …..has arsenal ever been relegated? ….had an argument with a mate this morning
Yes, Arsenal were relegated http://www.blog.woolwicharsenal.co.uk/archives/5891
But… Every team in England has been relegated at some time. Arsenal have the longest unbroken run of top flight football in England.
I don’t think that Arsenal gets enough credit for doing well against teams that are on form / well-placed in the league. Maybe an analysis can take into consideration our opposition’s league ranking and power ranking for each match?
The game against manu will define arsenal season. Common on boys.Epl title is there for the taking.
Remember that Ox own goal vs sunderland in the Fa cup some yrs back? The boy is just soo jinxed when he’s in our box, maybe his forefathers pissed on the apple tree