I didn’t expect Arsenal to crash out of the Europa League but Arsenal went and managed that in extra time. In fact, I was so confident that I had no problem accepting a 2pm meeting (the match kicked off at 12pm my time) because with a one goal lead and the second leg at home things were looking good.
Maybe that was part of the problem, everyone thought that the job was done after the first leg and all that was needed was to show up and see the thing out. In the end Arsenal probably did do enough to advance but they left things entirely too much to fate and got bitten for that attitude.
Arsenal 1-2 Olympiacos: By the graphs
My running xG graph got thrown off by the extra time and I just didn’t have the time to go and fix that, instead, I present a new info-graphic that is more or less copied straight from StatsBomb (why reinvent the wheel?) that helps give similar information but in a slightly less visually stimulating way. A note, the ratings of particular chances are always going to have margins of error around them because the model is built using information from similar shots and works best as a starting point and over bigger samples.
Arsenal 1-2 Olympiacos: By the numbers
3 – Shots for Arsenal in the first 45 minutes
0.07 – Expected goals of those 3 shots for Arsenal
10 – Touches in the box for Arsenal in the first 45 minutes
4 – Touches within 15 meters of goal for Arsenal in the first 45 minutes
53.3% – Arsenal possession in the first 45 minutes
61 – Final third passes completed by Arsenal in the first 45 minutes
In the first half, Arsenal didn’t necessarily dominate the possession but they did generally have the better of the territory battle, with most of the half played in the Olympiacos half with their players behind the ball. What Arsenal could not do was convert those possessions into shots, with just three total shots, and of those two came in one attack with both being blocked and the other was a Pepe free-kick. Arsenal had a one goal lead at the time on aggregate but as we learned, that was far from enough and the lack of decisive attacking moves came back to haunt Arsenal.
Arsenal’s front 3
9 – Shots for Arsenal’s starting front three, 4 for Pepe, 3 for Aubameyang and 2 for Lacazette.
1.13 – Expected goals for for Arsenal’s starting front three, 0.26 for Pepe, 0.5 for Aubameyang and 0.38 for Lacazette.
7 – Passes completed into the box (started from outside) for Arsenal’s starting front three, 6 for Pepe, 1 for Aubameyang and 0 for Lacazette.
11 – Passes completed within the box (passes started and ended inside the box) for Arsenal’s starting front three, 7 for Pepe, 2 for Aubameyang and 2 for Lacazette.
14 – Progressive passes for Arsenal’s starting front three, 7 for Pepe, 4 for Aubameyang and 3 for Lacazette.
52% – Percent of buildup to shots that Arsenal’s starting front three was involved in (passes before a key pass or shot), 38% for Pepe, 17% for Aubameyang and 11% for Lacazette.
192 – Total touches for Arsenal’s starting front three, 113 for Pepe, 46 for Aubameyang and 33 for Lacazette.
32 – Touches in the box for Arsenal’s starting front three, 14 for Pepe, 8 for Aubameyang and 10 for Lacazette.
17 – Touches within 15 meters of goal for Arsenal’s starting front three, 5 for Pepe, 4 for Aubameyang and 8 for Lacazette.
6 – Carries into the box for Arsenal’s starting front three, 5 for Pepe, 1 for Aubameyang and 0 for Lacazette.
31 – Progressive carries (moving with the ball at your feet that brings the ball 15% closer to the goal than where the player started) for Arsenal’s starting front three, 24 for Pepe, 5 for Aubameyang and 2 for Lacazette.
12 – Dribbles completed for Arsenal’s starting front three, 12 for Pepe, 0 for Aubameyang and 0 for Lacazette.
13 – Times dispossessed for Arsenal’s starting front three, 7 for Pepe, 4 for Aubameyang and 2 for Lacazette.
3 – Fouls suffered for Arsenal’s starting front three, 1 for Pepe, 2 for Aubameyang and 0 for Lacazette.
12 – Defensive actions for Arsenal’s starting front three, 3 for Pepe, 8 for Aubameyang and 1 for Lacazette.
5 – Fouls committed by Arsenal’s starting front three, 0 for Pepe, 1 for Aubameyang and 4 for Lacazette.
7 – Aerial duels contested for Arsenal’s starting front three, 3 for Pepe, 3 for Aubameyang and 1 for Lacazette. With just one won by Aubameyang.
For big matches, Arsenal should expect big things from their three biggest ever signings and in this match, they failed to provide the little bit extra to put things over the top. All three have blame to go around on this one. Pepe was dangerous with the ball at his feet but really failed to provide the final ball or shot. Aubameyang had a great chance at the end to put Arsenal through and missed wide. Lacazette was fairly anonymous in the match but still had a great chance fall to him in the box that he made an attempt to head when poking it with his foot was probably a better option. There is going to be a lot of digital ink spilled about the above three and rightly so over the next few days and I don’t want to color people’s opinions with my own so I think I will just let the numbers above speak for themselves.
Bonus Stat:
99% – Chance my weekend won’t be ruined by Arsenal this week. I wanted to make that 100% but this is Arsenal after all, all that being said I am thankful to not have to face Manchester City after this gut-punch of a match. Hopefully Arsenal can bounce back in the FA Cup.
@oh_that_crab
Sources: Opta via whoscored, statszone and my own database
If we’d have played with the speed we showed in the last 15 minutes of extra time from the beginning, we would have won easily.
Definitely something to that idea. This team has had problems for years now in breaking down well-organized teams that sit deep, and sometimes it feels like the best way to break through in such a situation is players being willing to take chances, do the unpredictable–to step, just briefly, out of their structured plan of attack (trying to pass it around and around, trying to pick their spots). Midfielders like Ramsey and Wilshere had some of that in them in their primes; maybe Willock can find that, too, but I’d love to see a midfielder in that mold recruited this… Read more »
Yes. Even just throwing balls into the box brings a mistake in the end. How many times did players on the wing check and pass back to Luiz in the end?
We need better central defenders. Our concessions were terrible and mainly down to mistakes by Luiz and then Sokratis. Mustafi has been our best defender of late, and is now injured, and we all know his snafu record. I know the midfield needs work, but we must get at least one stud centre half in the summer, in addition to the arriving Saliba. And what’s going on with Holding? We will go nowhere if we keep conceding 2 on set pieces at home to the likes of Olympiacos.
Rangers are in the last 16 as well as the fuckwits Man U.
tells me where we are…….sssaddly
Forget Rangers, I hope you missed our games with Watford earlier this season, and our game against Burnley recently. Watching those games brought my expectations down for Arsenal wins by 90%.
And….. I like Laca, but he is waaaaay outa sorts rite now
Seems to spend 90% of his time being pissed. Hope he snaps out of it. We could do with him.
Scott here is a stat for you:
There is a 100% chance your Thursday nights won’t be ruined either this season, and 98% the same for your Thursday nights next season.
Well, if the xg is 1,54 to Arsenal and 1,02 to Olympiacos, then Arsenal should have won or drawn this game. And still be in this competition. But we didn’t, and we are out. Everyone who knows how this would have played out if we just had sone this or that, or put on Martinelli earlier or that the players arn’t good enough, are liars. Nobody knows. Stop whining. Support the team. They need it now.
Of course we’ll support them, but we also deserve to have a whinge after that performance. What I hope is that the back of Thursday football, which really screws you over, allows us to tear up the league. Here we go.
The Ladies are playing in the Conti cup final against Chelsea. So in theory, a crushing defeat of the Ladies by the Blues could still mess up the weekend.
It is easy to look at the problems after the match, but it was significant lack of energy and motivation that cost us. Martinelli and Nketiah had fresh legs and I wonder what shape nelson was in. Hope to see some of them against Portsmouth.
It is hard and sad to admit but Laca my favourite player is off right now. Shoehorning Auba on the left is weakening us as he can’t dribble or pass creatively. Not playing Martinelli is a professional mistake. Ozil is a useless leech (thanks to his management team for reminding us) he can take his 100mil blind worshippers with him. I like Willock but he is clearly not ready, Ceballos is average. I would have liked to see Guendouzi as like Martinelli he shows the kind of passion fans love. Arteta was not courageous in his team selection and choices… Read more »