Ryan Fraser: By the numbers

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The summer transfer season is really starting to gear up and one of the first names that has been linked with Arsenal is Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser.

93 – Key passes, 3rd in the Premier League, would rank 1st on Arsenal (Mesut Özil led Arsenal with 45).

2.6 – Key Passes per 90 minutes, 98th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

51 – Shots, tied for 52nd in the Premier League, would rank 3rd on Arsenal (Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang led Arsenal with 94).

1.45 – Open play shots per 90 minutes, 67th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

50 – Open play key passes, 9th in the Premier League, would rank 1st on Arsenal (Alex Iwobi led Arsenal with 38).

1.9 – Open play key passes per 90 minutes, 96th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

14 – Assists, 2nd in the Premier League, would rank 1st on Arsenal (Alexandre Lacazette led Arsenal with 8).

18.6 – xG Assisted, 1st in the Premier League, would rank 1st on Arsenal (Alex Iwobi led Arsenal with 6.5).

0.51 – xG Assisted per 90 minutes, 98th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

16.1 – Offensive Value Added (A statistic scaled to goals that takes all offensive actions into account to determine total value added to a team), 9th in the Premier League, would rank 2nd on Arsenal (Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang led Arsenal with 16.7).

77 – Accurate Crosses, 2nd in the Premier League, would rank 1st on Arsenal (Granit Xhaka led Arsenal with 31).

2.2 – Accurate Crosses per 90 minutes, 95th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

28.4% – Cross percentage, 77th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

128 – Successful passes into the box, 3rd in the Premier League, would rank 1st on Arsenal (Alex Iwobi led Arsenal with 89).

76.9% – Pass completion percentage, 48th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

24 – Successful dribbles, tied for 82nd in the Premier League, would rank 4th on Arsenal (Alex Iwobi led Arsenal with 46).

0.77 – Successful dribbles per 90 minutes, 33rd percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

0.5 – Tackles per 90 minutes, 4th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

0.7 – Interceptions per 90 minutes, 12th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

4.2 – Total Defensive Actions per 90 minutes, 11th percentile among all wide forwards going back to the 2011-12 season for Big 5 European Leagues.

Fraser is an interesting type of player. He has a set of skills that he is really good at but doesn’t have a very well rounded skill set.

He is a very good crosser of the ball, ranking very highly at the volume of crosses completed while also completing crosses at a good rate (his 28% completion rate this season would put him in the 77th percentile for wide forwards). This ability to complete crosses combined with Callum Wilson to aim at led to a number of key passes and assists this season.

Moving beyond his ability to create with his elite crossing his skills aren’t nearly as good. He is slightly above average at getting shots from open play and takes shots from pretty good locations. He doesn’t dribble often, especially for a player that has played primarily from the wide positions that is a very valuable skill to have.

His overall passing numbers aren’t great, but a lot of that is down to his pass attempt mix where he tries a lot of crosses and passes that typically don’t come off. Given the type of passes that he attempts an average player would complete about 74% of them so he is slightly above average even with numbers that aren’t great looking.

On defense, well at Bournemouth he looks to be one of the players that isn’t asked to contribute much. Most teams can get buy with one or two of these types of players but I am not sure that Fraser would be able to do that at Arsenal.

Arsenal are working to roll out a new way of doing business in the transfer market so I will trust the new process to see how things play out before I make any final decisions on a signing let alone a player who is rumored.

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BigArse
BigArse

Good Article. Rules him out for me. We cannot afford to have any more defensive passengers in our squad.

Frank
Frank

Difficult to say how much of that is down to instruction. No suggestion that he couldn’t buy in to a pressing game at Arsenal is there? I’m more interesting in his output being so much higher than any of our existing wide options and we all talk about xG but that holds up too…

Hurensohn
Hurensohn

As winger/wider midfielder I can’t imagine he’s being asked not to make any tackles or contribute defensively… He’s not capable or willing.

Futsboller
Futsboller

Yeah, I really hope this goes the way of those rumours linking us to hiring Eddie Howe a few years ago. No thanks.

Vescucci
Vescucci

This piece made me realize how valuable Iwobi is

Scott Willis
Scott Willis

I think Iwobi could do a lot of this (maybe not quite the same assist numbers) if he had 3000 minutes.

Jack4343
Jack4343

Really Scott? I haven’t seen anything from Iwobi showing he can spit out these offensive numbers. It’s possible that Ryan Fraser might actually improve on those offensive numbers sloting into a better quality team. We are more offensive than Bournemouth are able to be and he will get more opportunities for crosses. I think Lacazette, Ozil and Aubameyang are better quality than Wilson, King and Brooks as well. (Though I’d take Brooks in a heartbeat)

HelderHughes
HelderHughes

I dunno about valuable. Iwobi is a solid enough squad player. I’m not sure he’ll be anything more. To play in Iwobi’s position for a club as big as Arsenal, a player needs to be able to make something happen out of nothing.

All the energy and step overs are good but I struggle to remember a time in his two seasons in the first team that the guy did anything which lit the game up or changed proceedings.

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

He has the odd game where he is amazing and the rest of the time he has no end product

Hopefully he will get better

HelderHughes
HelderHughes

I think amazing is a bit strong. As I said, struggling to remember a time he had us all jumping to our feet in anything other than frustration.

Sorry, it’s harsh because he’s a good guy. But he’s had enough time to progress. It’s just not really happening.

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

Maybe a bit strong but he was good at times. Just not often enough.

I too am starting to wonder if he will make it here.

kaius
kaius

Btw, just to underline how valuable Iwobi is: this year he’s put up better numbers in every category than Fraser was putting up at the same age (Fraser is 2 yrs older).

Jasonissimo
Jasonissimo

Iwobi’s best position probably isn’t wide forward. Even if it is, we need better play from those position, right and left.

Relatedly, I would like to see Arsenal play players in their best positions. If we already have better players there, then sell for value and buy a player who fits. I like Iwobi. He is a valuable squad player. But square pegs in round holes is not a recipe for winning the league.

AubasFade
AubasFade

Struggling to remember the games where Ozil now 3x the eagles and expectations did more! Iwobi is too easy a scape goat. He is progressing and will get better. At least he tries to influence the game unlike our other overpriced promadonnas

Arseluvr
Arseluvr

Had our backline not been so porous, would we be as critical of Iwobi and everyone else? Imagine if we had someone like Hummels instead of Mustafi. Our entire discussion here would be different. Just one good CB and we could have been 10 points better. We have a solid team, but defensively we are shite. The rest of the team is not entirely bad and getting better under a pretty damn good manager. Backline aside, my biggest gripe is Xhaka hasn’t been as good as I expected. Big cannon of a shot, but he’s waiting until he turns 40 to unload the motherfocker. He can make a good pass, but I was hoping for him to become what Ericson is to Spurs, or Modric to RM. Sadly, he also has a bit of Mustafi Stunned Cunt Disease.

Mpls
Mpls

That, and how weak we are in the wide players department.

bdotm
bdotm

And he’s a bit underappreciated. He should be scoring and creating more anyways. Howdy bro

Arsenalista
Arsenalista

And how far we have fallen

Rich
Rich

Emery was publicly screaming for wingers in January….

His distance covered per 90 and sprint stats would be interesting to see?

VAR will solve the problem
VAR will solve the problem

He can teach Kolasinac how to cross perhaps!

Rob333
Rob333

How important is it to be a well rounded player? Ideally you would prefer one of course, but should defensive capabilities really be an attribute that is considered seriously for a wide forward? Surely being good at what he specialises in is what should be favoured when analysing a player

NB. This is not me advocating the signing of Fraser, but he is one player that is intriguing…

Dennis Elbow
Dennis Elbow

It worked for Beckham.

Tasmanian Jesus
Tasmanian Jesus

In the modern game its becoming very important, as pressing all over the pitch is necessary if you want to win titles. Also pretty handy to know how help out further back..

Andy
Andy

Seen Bournemouth a lot. Fraser has always been underrated but he’s made the breakthrough now. He is a clear upgrade on Iwobi and Mkitaryan. While we are at it, get Ake to replace Mustafi and Brooks to replace any of the midfield drones.

Charles
Charles

I genuinely mean no offense, but I hate it when people are like, let’s draft half the squad of a mediocre team who we finished well above. We really oughta aim higher than Bournemouth.

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

Dunno Liverpool have done quite well out of stealing half the squad of teams below them

It’s a matter of stealing the right players

Andy
Andy

Either Fraser is better than Iwobi or he isn’t. Doesn’t matter who he plays for. And I think we need a dose of realism. It’s not beyond all possibility that when the window opens Tottenham will be European Champions and we will be in the Europa League again.

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

Wash your mouth out

Andy
Andy

Sorry was a bit sicky there in my mouth. But it could happen. We should all be prepared.

yura910721
yura910721

It could. If it does, we all just have to pretend it didn’t happen. Queue “we only care what’s happening with Arsenal and Arsenal alone” song.

Jack4343
Jack4343

There are some real quality players in some of these teams. Wilson is a capped English player and Brooks is as well for Wales. Judging by our relative lack of international players I don’t think we can be all high and mighty.

yura910721
yura910721

Funny thing, we may not have a budget to afford to take a gamble on them, based on our targets.

Martin
Martin

Just because plays for a mid table side it doesn’t mean he’s not good enough to play for Arsenal. If he can make 15 assists for Bournemouth how many would he make with our 2 quality strikers. Also he’s a great crosser of the ball which is something we lack. I’m surprised he hasn’t been signed

Rich
Rich

He takes a lot of set pieces, which certainly isn’t a bad thing, but regarding stats around assists it’s always something to take into consideration.

We certainly need at least one real quality wide player, I don’t know what this guys off the ball work rate is like? But ideally we’ll sign a wide forward who is absolutely relentless in his work ethic, and will also enjoy the physical side of it, the last thing we need is another lightweight passenger who doesn’t fancy it

Charles
Charles

Yeah obviously, I don’t object to any instance of a player. Maybe Fraser is good enough, maybe Ake is. It’s when you get to the point of grabbing several players that it feels a bit silly.

Andy
Andy

I’m not really suggesting we buy AFC Bournemouth wholesale but we have to look at what players are performing at the smaller Premier League clubs, as our pulling power is, frankly, on the wane.

Lord Bendnter
Lord Bendnter

He doesn’t sound like an Arsenal-esque player

It’s me
It’s me

A bit of Scottish grit may be no bad thing

Martin
Martin

Why? Fast winger who is great at crossing the ball and has 15 assists

Tasmanian Jesus
Tasmanian Jesus

He sounds a bit like Freddie really. Not the best technique, but created a lot of scoring opportunities.

Putney
Putney

It’s also anyone’s guess if he can repeat what he did last season in terms of goals and assists. The season before he had like 3 assists.

Sue

3 assists – like a normal season for Iwobi then 😄

Devlin
Devlin

Please, can you do more of these throughout the winter transfer period? It was a really interesting read.

Jack4343
Jack4343

I agree…well done Scott!

Eternal Titi Berg Pat Nostalgia
Eternal Titi Berg Pat Nostalgia

He isn’t one of the best student in the classroom. Raul said he feels strong when he talks to top players to come to Arsenal. We’ll see who he will bring.

Ozenal
Ozenal

Being the main outlet for bournemouth he would naturally be asked to stay upfield and be the first person the team look for in transition. His crossing would help alot against low defensive block. But for me he is someone who believe he can make a difference and knows his skillset to achieve that and doesn’t try wonder moves all the time.

He’s had to be efficient at Bournemouth and that will help us. Not sure about his combination play, but perhaps we will be playing more varied styles of football, alot similar to this season as we try to make a dirty dozen style team full of specialists.

Mpls
Mpls

Crosses well, but doesn’t score much, dribble, pass, or defend?

Must be a plan B, or C, or a whole lot of poops.

gooner
gooner

Does he have Armenian great grandparents?

bigluke
bigluke

Hahaha

Mekus
Mekus

I’m not all that impressed with this stat. Lot’s of similarities between him and Iwobi. I will like a much better all round equipped winger than this statistic moving forward.

Fuckusantori
Fuckusantori

Between him and Lucas Perez

Vonnie
Vonnie

There must be better, surely.

Espen
Espen

Really suprised. The numbers sugest that Iwobi is better than we give him credit for.
Alexis sanchez is considered a flop at United. Why is özil at 350.000 a week not considered a flop stats wise. 4 assists after the contract was signed. Is it not possible that he can be over the top as well? But I guess he is better than Fraser according to the experts. Probably just the coach and the team that is wrong.

Tasmanian Jesus
Tasmanian Jesus

I think we need a goalscoring winger, like Alexis or Lukas Podolski, for Mesut to get a much higher number of assists.

Chris Breezy

Really interesting stuff. Beyond the stats, he has looked class over the last couple of seasons. Would be a really exciting purchase and a bit of natural width sorely lacking recently.

djourou's nutmeg
djourou's nutmeg

is it fair to say fraser is a ‘forward’? i would probably count him as a midfielder, who goes forward a lot, but i wouldn’t say he was given a striker role. it must have to do with the fact bournemouth goes for the counter a lot, and they’re quite average in their passing game, so no surprise he isn’t shining with his passes either. then again, i haven’t watched bournemouth a lot.

since you’re going to analize players in he upcoming weeks, i think it would be interesting -and fair- to contextualize the players with their teams. per example, a newcastle defender probably’s got more interceptions than a liverpool one, but that’s down to the fact one’s a defending team and the other attacks all the time, and doesn’t mean that one ‘intercepts better’ than the other. i know you already know this, i just think it would be nice to have a reminder of this before showing data of a player, because if we suddenly buy a 18 year old forward from france’s 2nd division, im most likely not gonna know what his team’s gamestyle is, therefore wont be able to contextualize the amazing data you give us.

speaking of which, thank you a lot for the post, keep it up

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

I fancy Zaha would go well with Auba and Laca but we probably can’t afford him

That front line would terrorise defences

Martin
Martin

We don’t need an overrated inconsistent diving cheat.

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

10 goals and 10 assists, and he is a real handful

Sue

I’d love Zaha too! Sat there above the Palace fans, when Mustafi let him score.. he came over to celebrate, obviously for a split second I wanted to throttle him, then I imagined him in Arsenal colours.. he’s a beast.. so strong.. doesn’t take any crap (& those scary eyes – Guendouzi knows all about them 😀) unfortunately I can’t see it happening… but I’ll carry on dreaming 😍

Anonymarse
Anonymarse

Imagine him together with Auba and Laca. It would be total carnage.

I can’t see it happening either unfortunately, we have other priorities. Maybe if we win the Europa League.

Sue

That would be amazing!! You never know.. I mean I never thought we’d get Auba!
Yes, winning on Wednesday will help, for sure!

Jon

Arsenal is also “lnked to” Barcelona’s Samuel Umtiti, according to Sky sport. Umtiti is a fantastic defender. I’ve seen him totally pacify Cristian Ronaldo, without hard tackles or shirt pulling, only through speed, positioning and quick thinking.

santi's thigh grab
santi's thigh grab

Good player when he’s on the pitch, his injury history coupled with his cost gives me pause.

gunnerpete
gunnerpete

Since numbers are the topic, he had one assist against Spurs in the next to last weekend as his lone point against a top 6 side.

Is that entirely down to him? Not necessarily, but that’s a 12 game sample and that’s not insignificant that he seemed to feast on the bottom of the table.

Jack4343
Jack4343

I think that is more to do with how defensive Bournemouth have to play against the top 6 teams. Besides, where we struggled at times this year was against teams outside the top 6.

Badaab
Badaab

We could have our very own barrel with legs…
Joking aside, I like Fraser as an offensive player, and could see Emery getting a fair bit out of him in regards to workrate. He’s the right age profile we need to be recruiting from, has the right amount of top level experience, and could be ready for the step up to a larger side.
The issues surrounding him are his defensive workrate, his shooting, and his movement with the ball, all of which could be down to instruction from his current manager.
Biggest stumbling block, however, is the price Bournemouth are supposedly after for him, even as he enters the final season of his current contract, as we’d be splashing most of that ‘generous’ transfer kitty KSE have allotted on one creative player. Without moving our current number 10 on, I don’t see us signing him.

Jack4343
Jack4343

I’ll bet they will let him go for £20 million. He’s leaving for free if they don’t move him and they can’t take that kind of hit. £20 mil for that many assists? Yes please!

Pookins
Pookins

He’s not a bad player at all and could be a decent squad member but the price being quoted is ridiculous. 30 mil would be a little more acceptable if he had 3yrs on his contract but 1 year left? 15mil tops

Jack4343
Jack4343

He’s an upgrade on Iwobi but not a good cover defensively for Kolasinac judging by his low defensive involements. I really like him. He’s PL tested and will create. But we will be weak defensively with Kolasinac behind him. Sign a more defensive left back and I’m all in on this guy. Relatively cheap and will work his socks off.

gunner17
gunner17

so half the footballer that Iwobi is, but with twice the end product…about right?

Huss
Huss

I like Fraser a lot. His dribbling numbers are very troubling though. If we were a super club who could afford to have a player like Fraser playing 30-40% of starter minutes, this would be a fine signing. But we’re still trying to make a massive leap in quality and he doesn’t provide the one-on-one skills that make a difference against the best teams.

I would be far more interested in seeing Nelson, Amaechi and Saka get those minutes. If you’re going to spend 30m on a wide forward, go after someone like Chukwueze.

Mekus
Mekus

Yep. I’ve watched Chukwueze so many times in Spanish league, he’s a demon and ticks the right numbers for Arsenal.

Lanre
Lanre

Nicolas Pepe anyone? Front 3 of Auba, Laca and that dude will absolutely tear teams to shreds. Any chance of this hapening?

Mekus
Mekus

Not so sure we can afford his price tag and still get other important areas that need attention.

Clockendrider
Clockendrider

“He has a set of skills that he is really good at but doesn’t have a very well rounded skill set.”. This is a big call as there is no context provided. What stats do similar players have?
Further, given a restricted budget, we are going to have to take players who are likely to require further development. Manchester City buy/have bought/will continue to buy all the fully rounded players. This is because they have no concept of a budget. We are not in that place.

Andrew Laing
Andrew Laing

Surely his defensive contributions are in large part due to the fact he was AFCB’s chief point of reference for a goal? Very hard to rate so highly across the board if he’s been told to stay up and get the ball to Wilson – which was his main job and he excelled at it.

Playing with Laca/Auba equates to more goals for Arsenal, it’s obvious.

The question is not “can Fraser defend?” rather than “can Arsenal defend?”. You’ll know better than me.

People levelled the same at Robertson before Liverpool, and those accusations look ridiculous now in the face of arguably the world’s best LB (certainly top 3). He does a lot of his marauding getting cover from Fabinho, Henderson and Milner – because that is the way they have been coached. This doesn’t mean Robertson isn’t superb at defending – he is – just an indication that saying “can Fraser defend?” is a bit of a wider question.

MrSymes
MrSymes

These are good points.

MrSymes
MrSymes

I’d be very interested to see what Arsenal can do with a proper winger, which we haven’t had for some time. Currently we usually have a front three with Laca/Auba switching between centre forward and one side, and the other side occupied by Iwobi or Mkhitaryan. Maybe Emeri like Wenger enjoys having someone who is essentially a midfielder in one of the winger positions so they can cut in and add to stability in the middle, but I think often it just leaves one side of the pitch empty of any attacking threat, or when it is there then it’s very slow, building up passes on the overlap but ending up by the corner flag with the whole opposition sat in their box.

A proper winger, in a proper attacking front line, could be quite exciting. And the way he’s being discussed here (and especially by Blogs today) surprises me given how highly regarded he is across the fanbases at this point. The dribbling stats are a concern but Iwobi has dribbling and little end product. At the same time you’d have to wonder how much good crossing is worth if we have say Lacazette at CF.

Still, I’d be up for it. When was the last time we bought a premiere league player? It comes at a premium but there’s a reason for that, and Fraser would come way under his current value anyway, being in his final year.

Or if we don’t then I hope at least Nelson gets a run in the team. Wingers are a rare breed these days and I don’t think it’s due to tactical trends so much as what forward players aspire to be right now. It could make our attack so much more diverse.

N10
N10

For 15-20m a BARGAIN.

The statistician’s sleight of hand is to lend an air of objectivity to very subjective opinions. It’s a StatsDNA-mindset that stuck us with Xhaka and Mustakey. That’s what going on here. No offence, any statistician would own that, that’s the “game”. But I think there are a lot of gullible people out there easily taken in by this style of argumentation.

Back to the most important numbers: 2nd (by 1) in the league in assists, led league in chances created by a mile, excellent crosser, incredible work rate and league-leading end-product.

Intangibles: PL experience, toughness able to play physically even though he’s only 5’4, not injury prone despite playing every minute of every game.

This is about what we want and need. He’s incredibly good at getting the ball into the box, and we need that desperately. KOH-la-shEE-nats is excellent at getting the ball upfield. Get it to Fraser to cross to our New Attacking Midfielder, to Laca or Auba.

Emery has said though that he wants well-rounded players. Scott is right that Fraser might not be able to offer elite dribbling and goal scoring. But I’d want him on my side if we need a goal that’s for damn sure, especially in weak areas for us, set pieces and crosses.

Again, a bargain.

J Tired Eye
J Tired Eye

Can you do a comparison with Bernado Silva’s stats at Monanco?